Evaluating player performance with one or two key statistics per position
With the Commanders set to take the field against the Carolina Panthers in just a few hours, I thought this would be a good time to review how the new look roster doing, one third of the way through Year 1 of the “recalibration”. OK, I was actually hoping to get this out on Sunday, DMV-time, but it’s pretty challenging getting two analytics articles out in a week.
To make this challenge manageable, and hopefully more interesting to readers, I decided to try something different. Rather than my usual offseason approach of taking a deep dive into the different facets of play at each position, this article will evaluate the Commanders’ players against the rest of the league using just one key or two key stats per position.
In all but one case, the idea was just to focus on the most important aspect of play at each position. For some positions, such as OL and LB, that was not possible, because performance in the passing and running games are both crucial and require different stats to measure them. In those cases, I kept it to two key stats. At each position, I compared the performance of Washington’s players to the top n players in the league by playing time, with n set to represent the “starters”. At positions with a lot of rotation (e.g. RB, WR, CB), or where different teams have different numbers of starters (e.g. iDL, LB), I increased the number to roughly approximate starters plus major contributors.
Lastly, I gave special attention to rookies. At positions where a rookie has got significant playing time, his performance was compared to the rest of the rookie class.
Now, let’s see how the veteran players are adjusting to playing for the new regime and how the rookies are coming along.
OFFENSE
Quarterback
QB is the one position on an NFL roster with a really good, all-inclusive performance metric. To compare Jayden Daniels’ performance to his peers, I used ESPN’s Total QBR. QBR is frequently confused with the NFL official stat Passer Rating, which is only based on passing stats. QBR is derived from EPA/play, and measures how effective the QB is at advancing his team toward scoring on a play by play basis. Unlike Passer Rating, it reflects most every aspect of QB play, including passing, running and negative plays, like sacks and fumbles. The only thing it really misses is run blocking.
Total QBR improves on EPA/play with weighting to emphasize plays that contribute to game outcomes and to correct for inflation in garbage time. It is also scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best).
If he continues playing and improving, as he has through week 6, Jayden Daniels is on pace for a historic rookie performance. He currently ranks third among NFL starters on ESPN’s leader board.
This might be unfair to Marcus Mariota, given the small sample of playing time. In his one appearance relieving Daniels at the end of a blowout, he did very little to advance the team’s cause.
Given the rapid rise to the elite ranks of NFL QBs, it should come as no surprise that JD5 is also the breakaway leader of the rookie class, even with Caleb Williams showing signs of mounting a pursuit. Here is how the rookie QB class stacks up after six games:
To date, five rookies have played at least one full game at QB. At this point in the race, Jayden Daniels has an enormous lead over second placed late entrant, Spencer Rattler, who played surprisingly well in two starts against the Bucs and Broncos. Caleb Williams got off to a slower start than Jayden, but has started looking like a first overall pick in his last three wins over the Rams, Panthers and Jaguars.
Running Back
No fancy stats are required to measure rushing performance. Average Yards Per Attempt (YPA) is a great measure of rushing effectiveness. The Commanders’ rushers were compared to all NFL RBs with a minimum of 20 rushing attempts (n = 65).
Receiving performance was measured by Yards Per Route Run (Y/RR), against RBs with a minimum of 10 targets (n = 45). Y/RR measures receiving productivity on a down to down basis, encompassing all aspects of receiving performance, including getting open to draw targets, catching the ball and adding yards after the catch. To help readers get a better feel for the numbers, here is the range of values from the sample of 45 starters and major contributors:
NFL Leader: 2.44 Y/RR (Someone we know)
Median: 1.2 Y/RR (Bijan Robinson)
Minimum: 0.4 Y/RR (Jaleel McLaughlin)
Now, let’s see how the Commanders’ RBs measure up:
Through six games, the Commanders’ Austin Ekeler ranks third in the NFL in rushing average among starters and major contributors at his position. He is also the NFL’s most productive receiving back.
Lead back Brian Robinson Jr is also an above average rusher, ranking 25th in YPA among 65 starters and major contributors. His receiving productivity has been a little below average through the early part of the season, ranking 25th among RBs with enough receiving activity to start to get a handle on performance.
Rotational back Jeremy McNichols has been spectacular in limited rushing opportunities. He falls just short of the minimum number of carries required for ranking purposes. With just two more carries at his current rate, he would rank second in rushing average. He has only one reception for 6 yards, which is too small a sample to evaluate receiving performance.
Wide Receiver
Several different aspects of receiving play contribute to a receiver’s ability to accumulate yardage totals, including route running to get open and draw the QB’s attention, making catches – sometimes against opposition, and running after the catch. Yards Per Route Run (Y/RR) measures the net effect of all of the above, in an opportunity-adjusted manner to allow meaningful comparisons between players with different amounts of playing time.
The Commanders’ players were ranked against 96 WRs with a minimum of 13 targets (20% of maximum), to approximate three “starters” per team (2 wideouts plus slot receiver). To give readers a feel for the numbers, here is the range of Y/RR values from the comparison sample:
NFL Leader: 3.63 Y/RR, A.J. Brown
Median: 1.56 Y/RR, Alan Lazard/Rashod Bateman
Minimum: 0.49 Y/RR, Elijah Moore
The Commanders’ most productive WR, on a down to down basis, believe it or not, is Noah Brown. The late offseason addition ranks 25th among 96 WRs, at 2.04 Y/RR. That value places him right at the cutoff of the 75th percentile of WRs.
WR1 Terry McLaurin has got the most playing time, but ranks a little behind Brown in receiving productivity. Even so, his productivity is significantly above average for starting WRs. One could nitpick and say he is near the bottom of #1 receivers, if the numbers actually fell out with all of the lead receivers in the top 32. However, it doesn’t actually work that way, and his productivity has been impacted by JD5 coming up to speed through the first few games. Also Kliff Kingsbury’s offense tends to spread the ball around more than most, which gives an advantage to WRs on teams that focus targets on a single lead receiver.
Olamide Zaccheaus is third WR on the team in total receiving yards (151) and is only slightly behind McLaurin in receiving productivity on an opportunity adjusted basis, at 1.89 Y/RR. He is also well above average in Y/RR among teams’ top-3 WRs, ranking 32nd among 96 WRs.
Dyami Brown and Luke McCaffrey have not had enough receiving targets for inclusion in the ranking cohort. If they had, their productivity values would have ranked 72nd and 90th respectively.
At the risk of breaking with the article concept, Washington’s WRs have compiled some other notable receiving stats. Terry McLaurin leads all NFL WRs with 12 contested catches. His contested catch rate of 70.6% would be a very good overall catch rate, particularly since he has the 10th highest ADOT (14.9 yds) in the league. Olamide Zaccheaus, meanwhile, is averaging 7.3 Yards After the Catch/Reception, which is the 12th highest among WR (min 13 targets).
Rookie WR Class
Luke McCaffrey ranks near the bottom of “starting” WRs in receiving productivity, but how does he rank amongst his peers in the rookie WR class?
A total of 35 WRs were drafted in April, and 5 UDFA WRs have had at least 1 receiving target. Out of those players, 19 have had at least 6 targets. Luke McCaffrey currently ranks 15th out of those 19 rookie WRs in receiving productivity at a modest 0.89 Y/RR. His comparatively low productivity, thus far, is due in part to his rookie still improving his ability to find non-primary reads. In the last few games, he has been wide open but not targeted on a large number of plays.
When he has been targeted, he has been exceptional at catching the ball. McCaffrey’s 100% reception rate (12/12) leads all NFL WRs with 10 or more targets.
Tight End
Tight ends perform two crucial functions, receiving and blocking.
As with the other positions, receiving performance was measured by Y/RR. Washington’s players were ranked against 41 TEs with a minimum of 10 targets, roughly approximating the cohort of starting TEs, with some teams starting 2 players at the position. The range of Y/RR values in the ranking sample was as follows:
NFL Leader: 2.33, Dallas Goedert
Median: 1.46, David Njoku
Minimum: 0.32, Greg Dulcich
While TEs make important contributions to pass blocking, particularly on the Commanders, by sheer numbers they are predominantly used as run blockers. No TE has enough pass blocking snaps for meaningful statistical analysis (max. 40 snaps). Evaluating blocking by TEs creates a challenge, because there is no satisfying production-based metric for run blocking performance. To fill the void, I have relied increasingly on Pro Football Focus’ subjectively-based Run Blocking Grades. This metric is growing on me, because it passes the eye test better than others that have been suggested, such as SIS Blown Block rates, which ranked All-Pro RT Penei Sewell 25th among OTs last season.
The Commanders’ players were ranked against 55 TEs with a minimum of 62 run blocking snaps (deliberately set to include Zach Ertz and Ben Sinnott in the ranking group). The range of run block grades in this sample were as follows:
NFL Leader: 86.5, Mark Andrews
Median: 58.8, Charlie Kolar
Minimum: 29.7, Someone we know
Zach Ertz has become a reliable chain mover for Jayden Daniels. With a catch rate of 75%, he has shown an ability to pick up chunk yardage when needed, and is currently Washington’s second leading receiver, with 228 receiving yards. Compared to other NFL TEs, however, he is slightly below average in receiving productivity, ranking 2 spots lower than median in the extended sample of “starters”.
None of the other TEs has enough receiving activity to permit meaningful evaluation of receiving performance.
As we have come to expect, John Bates leads the Commanders’ TEs in run blocking. According to PFF, his run blocking this season has been a hair below average among starting TEs. Rookie Ben Sinnott has been earning his keep as run blocker, as well. Through his first six games grades a little below average, but well within the starters range. Starter Zach Ertz, on the other hand, has done his best work as a receiver. He has the worst run blocking grade of the extended starters cohort.
Offensive Line
Offensive linemen are responsible for pass protection and run blocking. Run blocking performance was ranked using PFF grades, as with tight ends. Performance in pass protection is more readily quantifiable using Pressure Rate, defined as the percentage of pass blocking snaps on which the blocker allowed a pressure (QB hurry, QB hit, sack).
The Commanders’ players were ranked within their position groups (OT, C, G). In this case, the ranking cohorts were the n players who got the most playing time at their positions, where n is the number of starters at each position: 64 OT, 64 G, 32 C.
The different OL positions give up very different rates of pressure in pass protection. To give readers a feel for the Pressure Rate states, here are the values for the three OL positions:
Center: Low (good) 0.92%; Median 3.66%; High (bad) 8.99%
Guard: Low 1.98%; Median 4.61%; High 13.3%
OT: Low 0.88%; Median 5.71%; High 13.1%
Adam Peters’ second biggest FA acquisition, Tyler Biadasz, is currently the highest rated center in pass protection in the NFL. His run blocking ranks 13th out of 32 starters. He has well and truly upgraded what had been one of the two weakest OL positions last season.
Through the first 6 games, RT Andrew Wylie has allowed pressure on just 4.61% dropbacks, which ranks 23rd best among 64 starting OTs, and is by far the best mark of his career. His previous best since switching to OT was last season, when he allowed pressure on 6.06% of dropbacks. According to PFF, his run blocking has been a little below average.
Another pleasant surprise has been the play of LT Cornelius Lucas, who has been alternating series with rookie Brandon Coleman. Lucas has greatly exceeded expectations based on previous seasons’ performance as a swing tackle. He has allowed the 10th lowest Pressure Rate in pass protection among 64 starting OTs. His run blocking also ranks above average among starting OTs.
Brandon Coleman has exceeded expectations by earning starting reps, but has allowed very high rates of pressure in pass protection in his first six games. He just missed out on inclusion in the ranking cohort. But if he had, he would rank as the second worst OT in pass protection. He has been better as a run blocker, where he grades just a little below average for a starter at his position.
Sam Cosmi was the lone bright spot on the OL last season, and has continued to perform as a quality starter after earning an $18.5m APY extension. Through 6 games, he ranks 17th best of 64 starting guards in pass protection, and is only slightly below the starting average in run blocking.
Prior to the start of the season, I commented that LG was shaping up to be the weakest link on the OL this season. It had been the weakest OL position in 2023, and had the least amount of resources direct to it in the offseason. Sure enough, in his first starting opportunity, replacement-level FA addition Nick Allegretti has been the weakest of the Commanders’ starters in pass protection. But as weak links go, he hasn’t been that bad. His pass blocking ranks around the lower third of starting guards, while his run blocking ranks a little worse than that. In case anyone forgot, last season’s starting LG was the worst in the league in pass protection. Allegretti is, at least, an improvement over that.
DEFENSE
Edge Defenders
Edge defenders rush the passer and set the edge on running downs. I am not aware of any stats on edge-setting, so I evaluated them based on their pass rushing.
The Commanders’ edge rushers were ranked against the rest of the league using Pressure Rate. In this case, that is defined as the percentage of pass rush snaps on which they generated pressures. Washington’s players were ranked against the 64 edge defenders who played the most defensive snaps. For comparison, here are the key Pressure Rate values for that sample:
NFL Leader: 22.7%, Aidan Hutchinson
Median: 11.4%, Chauncey Golston/George Karlaftis
Minimum: 4.9%, Joseph Ossai
For all the complaints about the lack of pressure on opposing QBs, the Commanders two leading edge rushers are both in the top 10 of NFL starters at pressuring the QB. Prior to the season, I wrote that Dorance Armstrong had been generating pressure and sacks at the same rates as the player he replaced, Montez Sweat. Through 6 games, Montez has generated pressure on just 12.1% of pass rush snaps (Rank 26). Dorance Armstrong has outpaced Sweat in pressure rate and total sacks with 3 to Sweat’s 2. Head coach Dan Quinn seems to have known what he was doing when he brought him to DC.
The other edge defender Quinn brought with him from Dallas was Dante Fowler. In just 3 starts, Fowler has also outpaced last year’s starter in pressuring the QB and total sacks (3.5 vs 2). Fowler’s 2024 cap hit is just 13% of Sweat’s this season, and the dead cap hit if he is lost to injury is just $1.4m vs. $58m for Sweat.
Clelin Ferrell won the starting DE position opposite to Armstrong in camp, but missed time with injuries. In 3 starts, he generated pressure on 10.9% of pass rush snaps. If he had played enough to qualify for the ranking cohort, that would rank 41st among NFL starters.
Rookie DE Javonte Jean-Baptiste has only generated pressure on 4.4% of pass rush snaps, which is lower than the lowest-ranked starter. However, he has sacked the QB, which is actually kind of special for a seventh round draft pick.
Rookie Edge Rusher Class
Jean-Baptiste was the fourth to last of 21 edge defenders drafted in April. Another 8 UDFA edge rushers have played at least one defensive snap. Despite being drafted in the seventh round Jean-Baptiste has earned the 5th most playing time out of 29 rookies at his position. Through 6 games, he has earned more playing time than first round picks Dallas Turner and Chop Robinson, and 10 other players who were Day 1 and 2 draft picks.
Even more impressively, Jean-Baptiste is one of only 8 rookie edge defenders with a sack. The only rookie ED with more sacks is Denver’s Jonah Elliss, with 2.
But, that’s not how I’m ranking edge rushers. Among 11 rookie ED who have played at least 50 defensive snaps, he ranks 9th in Pressure Rate. That is not too shabby, considering that he was the 18th player drafted at his position.
Defensive Tackles
The Commanders defensive tackles were ranked against their peers using Pressure Rate on pass rush snaps, just like the edge defenders, and Run Stop Rate on rushing downs.
Run Stop Rate measures tackles that result in failure for the offense. A tackle is classified as a stop on first down if the offense is held to less than 45% of the distance to a first down, on second down if they are held to less than 60% of the distance to the line to gain, and on third or fourth down if the offense is held short of a first down or a score. Run Stop Rate is the percentage of running downs on which a defender generates a stop.
Pass rush performance was ranked against 80 interior defensive linemen with 150 or more defensive snaps. This roughly approximates the number of starters on both 4-3 and 3-4 defenses. The key Pressure Rate values in this sample are:
NFL Leader: 16.0%, Chris Jones
Median: 7.63%, Karl Brooks
Minimum: 0%, Shy Tuttle and Nick Thurman of the Carolina Panthers
Run Stop Rate was ranked against 93 iDL with a minimum of 60 run defense snaps. The key values are:
NFL Leader: 14.1%, Sebastian Joseph-Day
Median: 5.8%, Chris Jones
Minimum: 1.1%, Nick Thurman
Like the edge rushers, there has been a lot of grumbling that the DTs are underperforming. While Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen have not been having career-best seasons, compared to the rest of the league, they have still been fairly productive.
Payne ranks 9th among the top 80 iDL in pressuring the QB, with 19 pressures on 150 pass rush snaps. Jonathan Allen has been less disruptive up front, but still ranks at the 64th percentile of iDL in generating pressure. Allen also ranks 29th out of 93 iDL at stopping the run.
The rotational iDL, including rookie Johnny Newton, have been less effective in both facets of the game.
Rookie iDL Class
Twenty three iDL were drafted and five UDFAs have played on defense.
Out of 28 rookie iDL, 9 have played at least 50 pass rush snaps. Newton ranks 6th out of 9 in Pressure Rate on passing downs.
The story is pretty similar in run defense. Newton ranks 6th among 10 rookie iDL in Run Stop Rate (min. 30 run defense snaps).
Hopefully getting starting reps in place of Jon Allen will jumpstart his development.
Linebacker
LBs have among the most diverse and varied sets of responsibilities in today’s game. I chose to rank them based on performance in run defense and pass coverage.
Run defense was evaluated using Run Stop Rate, just like the DTs. Commanders’ players were ranked against 79 LBs who played a minimum of 50 run defense snaps. Key values from that sample are:
NFL Leader: 13.3%, Payton Wilson, Ventrell Miller, Terrell Bernard, Azeez Al-Shaair
Median: 7.6%, Marist Liufau, Troy Andersen
Min: 1.4%, Patrick Queen
Performance in coverage was measured using Yards Per Coverage Snap (Y/Cov Snp). This is essentially the defensive version of Y/RR, which I used to rank receiving productivity. It measures how effective the defender is at limiting yardage production by receivers in his coverage.
Commanders’ players were ranked against 85 linebackers with a minimum of 100 defensive snaps. Key values from that sample are:
NFL Leader: 0.02 yds, Derrick Barnes
Median: 0.92 yds, Tramaine Edmunds, Frankie Luvu
Maximum: 2.13 yds, Tyrice Knight
Bobby Wagner rates as the best of Washington’s LBs in both run defense and coverage, although he is actually pretty close to Frankie Luvu in both categories.
Wagner ranks above average among 79 LBs in run defense, and was also above average of 85 LBs in pass coverage.
Luvu ranked just slightly below average in Run Stop Rate, and was exactly on the median in pass coverage.
Mykal Walker has played just 36 defensive snaps, mostly in run defense. The sample is to small to evaluate his performance meaningfully.
Cornerbacks
Cornerbacks were evaluated based on coverage performance using Yards Per Coverage Snap, just like the linebackers.
Commanders’ players were ranked against 96 CBs who played a minimum of 125 coverage snaps. Key Y/Cov Snp values from this sample are:
NFL Leader: 0.24 yds, Samuel Womack III
Median: 0.93 yds, Joey Porter Jr.
Maximum: 1.79 yds, Amani Oruwariye
Of course some of the variation between CBs has to do with assignments. Igbinoghene has had an easier task, covering RBs and slot receivers than Benjamin St-Juste, who usually covers WR1s. Nevertheless, most of the top ranked CBs by this metric are CB1s, so that’s not really an excuse.
St-Juste has given up 1.63 Yards/Coverage Snap, which is the 90th worst figure out of 96 CBs. He has not been doing much to slow down the receivers in his coverage.
Rookie Mike Sainristil was drafted to play the slot, but has been forced to play outside, due to the team’s failure to find a better option. He has fared pretty well for an undersized rookie playing boundary corner, conceding an average of 0.96 Yards/Coverage Snap, which ranks just a little below average among starting CBs. I’ll say more about him below.
Emmanuel Forbes has only played 2 games due to a thumb injury. When he has been healthy, he has been porous in coverage, giving away 1.5 Yards/Coverage Snap, which is only slightly better than St-Juste.
Michael Davis made one brief starting appearance on defense and was quickly benched for being the worst CB in the NFL. To put his 3.88 Yards/Coverage Snap figure in perspective, the top ranked WR in the NFL produces at a rate of 3.63 Yards/Route Run. When Davis covers receivers, they produce like the best WR in the league.
Rookie CB Class
Mike Sainristil was the 8th of 37 CBs drafted in April.
Out of 14 drafted rookie CBs who have played a minimum of 50 coverage snaps, Sainristil ranks 5th in Yards/Coverage Snap. He has been better at containing production of receivers in coverage than 5/6 CBs drafted before him. Only Max Melton has been better at 0.65 Yards/Coverage Snap.
Sainristil is also one of only 4 rookie CBs with an interception. No rookie CB has more than one.
Safety
Performance of the Commanders’ safeties in coverage and run defense was evaluated using the same stats as other positions.
Commanders’ players’ coverage performance was ranked against 64 safeties (min 220 def. snaps) using Yards/Coverage Snap. Safeties tend to give up fewer yards in coverage than CBs, because they are less likely to be primary defenders in coverage. Key values from this sample are:
NFL Leader: 0.0 yds, Taylor Rapp (169 coverage snaps)
Median: 0.57 yds, Marcus Williams
Maximum: 1.89 yds, Cam Lewis
Performance in run defense was ranked against 50 safeties with a minimum of 40 run defense snaps (20% of maximum) using Run Stop Rate. Key values from the sample are:
NFL Leader: 13.0%, Chamarri Conner
Median: 4.2%, 4 players
Minimum: 2.2%, Quan Martin, D’Anthony Bell
Jeremy Chinn measured very well in coverage, holding his receivers to just 0.21 Yards/Coverage Snap, which was the 8th lowest among 64 safeties. His ability to generate run stops was below average of the 50 safeties with enough data.
Quan Martin was significantly below average in coverage (rank 48/64), and was tied for the lowest ranked safety in run defense.
Percy Butler was equally disappointing in both phases of defense.
SPECIAL TEAMS
One area of play that has greatly improved this season is special teams. The Commanders teams specialists were ranked against the rest of the league using standard, self-explanatory stats.
Austin Seibert was signed during Week 2 to solve the crisis at place kicker, and quickly solidified the position. He has made 15/16 field goals thus far and has not missed an extra point. His field goal percentage of 93.8% ranks 8th among NFL kickers (min 8 att.).
Tress Way has not been called on much. With only 11 punts, he is averaging 46.3 yds/attempt, which ranks 24th in the NFL.
With all of the angst directed toward the return game in recent years, it is remarkable how little commentary there has been about the fact that Olamide Zaccheaus is the best punt returner Washington has had in over a decade. His 16.6 yd average is the 4th highest in the league. And he hasn’t dropped a punt or fumbled.
Lastly, Austin Ekeler has the 6th highest average kick return.