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ESPN
Eagles pull away from Commanders in NFC East showdown
The story of the Eagles’ season so far has been the incredible play of Barkley and the surprising performance of Vic Fangio’s defense. That continued in Thursday’s crucial divisional win over the Commanders.
On a night when Hurts struggled to get going, the defense kept rookie quarterback sensation Jayden Daniels in check and came up with a key fourth-quarter interception courtesy of safety Reed Blankenship to help create a snowball effect in Philly’s favor. There were only modest expectations for the defense coming into the season, but the Eagles entered the week ranked second in yards allowed per game and tied for fifth in points allowed per game, figures that stand to hold up after Thursday.
Barkley scored a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns in a span of 20 seconds to turn what was mostly a nail-biter into a comfortable victory for Philadelphia, which has now won six in a row.
The Eagles’ chances of winning the division shot up from 63% to 81%, according to ESPN Analytics. They’ll enjoy their mini-bye before turning their attention to a Week 12 matchup against the Rams. It will be their last plane ride of the regular season.
Bleeding Green Nation
NFL playoff picture: Eagles create cushion atop the NFC East by beating Commanders
The cushion the Eagles just built up could come in handy with some tough battles on the horizon.
The Rams can be dangerous, though they did just lose to the Miami Dolphins at home. The Ravens are obviously imposing with MVP front-runners Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry powering their offense. The Steelers can’t be slept on; they’re undefeated with Russell Wilson starting.
It’ll be pretty interesting to see how things go over the next four weeks before the Eagles’ rematch with the Commanders. The Birds will lock up a head-to-head tiebreaker if they can beat Washington again. And that might come in handy since the Commanders’ remaining schedule isn’t looking super difficult.
The Commanders will likely be favored in at least four of these six games. And they do have the chance to catch their breath with a late bye. Marshon Lattimore getting healthy could be a big boost for their defense.
dallascowboys.com
Science Lab: Cowboys face daunting playoff odds
As noted, the Cowboys are 3-6 on the season and with eight games remaining, it’s not simply about getting back to winning games. Oh no no no, dear friend. This is now about trying to win each and every one of the contests from now through the Week 18 regular season finale which, as fate would have it, is at AT&T Stadium, where they aren’t faring well.
That said, do they need to win all of the final eight?
Mathematically, no, but there is a very clear and definitive Mendoza Line here.
Chance of Making Playoffs, Per Win Tally
Current status (3-6 record): 3% chance
Win 5 of the final 8 games (8-9 record): <1% chance
Win 6 of the final 8 (9-8 record): 11% chance
—————— Mendoza Line ——————
Win 7 of the final 8 (10-7 record): 66% chance
Win 8 of the final 8 (11-6 record): 99% chance
If the Cowboys lose to the Texans in Week 11, yes, their odds of making the playoffs drop from three percent (3%) to one percent (1%) but, if they somehow shock the world in primetime, their odds will obviously improve.
Hell, they’d double, but that just means they’ll go to a resounding six percent (6%).
Yay?
Big Blue View
After turning over the safety position, have the Giants gained or lost?
The New York Giants’ personnel decisions at safety have certainly engendered controversy in the fan base. Has GM Joe Schoen been right or wrong in how he has approached the position?
Current roster: Jason Pinnock, Tyler Nubin, Dane Belton, Anthony Johnson
Players drafted since 2022: Dane Belton (Round 4, No. 114, 2022) | Gervarrius Owens (Round 7, No. 254, 2023) | Tyler Nubin (Round 2, No. 47, 2024)
Biggest free agent signing: Jason Pinnock (2022 waiver claim)
Biggest losses: Xavier McKinney, Julian Love
What they lost
The Giants lost Julian Love to the Seattle Seahawks in free agency before the 2023 season. It wasn’t because they didn’t try to keep him.
Love was a full-time starter for the Giants for the first time in four years in 2022, and played extremely well. He signed a two-year, $12 million deal with Seattle. Reporting from The Athletic indicated that the Giants offered love more than that during the 2022 season bye week. Love, thinking he would be able to find an even more lucrative offer in free agency, turned it down.
What they gained
Credit the Giants’ pro personnel department with identifying a mistake made by the New York Jets when they tried to pass Jason Pinnock through waivers to their practice squad in 2022. The Giants claimed him, and Pinnock — while not quite as good this season as he was in 2023 — has filled the spot vacated by Love.
The Giants drafted 23-year-old Tyler Nubin in Round 2 to replace the 26-year-old McKinney. Called the ‘alpha of alphas” by assistant GM Brandon Brown, it is easy to see why the Giants liked Nubin coming out of Minnesota. He has played 99% of the defensive snaps. Get around him and the leadership traits that will see him grow into a core defensive player, if he isn’t already, are apparent. The ball-hawking skills that saw him intercept 13 passes as a collegian haven’t shown up yet in the NFL, but there is a lot to like.
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Articles
The Athletic (paywall)
Why the NFL is so obsessed with the Wing T offense
[T]he best offenses aren’t just lining up in an I-formation and calling iso and power over and over again. To be a good running team, you have to be creative and deceptive. Offensive coaches are looking for ideas anywhere, and multiple teams have turned to one of the original offensive systems: the Wing T.
The Wing T is a three-back offense. The original formation has two backs in the backfield and a wing lined up outside and behind the tight end. The wing serves as a third back who goes in motion to receive handoffs or fake like he’s getting a handoff. Though the formation and plays can vary from iteration to iteration, the core principles are deception, sleight of hand and speed. The goal is to displace linebackers with motions and fakes and quickly hit the defense with runs away from the fake.
Why is the Wing T making its way into the NFL?
The prominence of the jet sweep — in which a receiver goes into a motion and gets a direct handoff running to the perimeter — comes directly from the Wing T. During Jim Harbaugh’s first stint as the head coach for the San Francisco 49ers, he started running wide receivers fly sweeps for Ted Ginn Jr. Harbaugh credited Sacred Heart Prep’s Pete Lavorato with teaching him the fly sweep after Harbaugh attended a clinic on Lavorato’s offense, a version of the Wing T.
Now, every team has the jet sweep in its offense. The play keeps defensive ends honest. Faking the jet sweep to receivers, then handing off the ball or tossing it to running backs displaces linebackers. The misdirection gets them looking and leaning the wrong way, which is one of the core features of every Wing T offense.