Morning briefing: 26-Nov-24 – With recent losses & QB struggles, are problems brewing for Bears, Texans and Commanders?

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‘Things I think’: Brian Daboll’s grip on the New York Giants, and his job, might be slipping away

Losing is one thing, but losing the way the Giants did on Sunday and then having players question each other’s effort is another

[T]hings went as badly as they could possibly go once the game started.

• The listless Giants gave up a 14-play, 70-yard touchdown drive on the Buccaneers’ opening possession.
• They fell behind 23-0 at halftime and 30-0 in the third quarter en route to a never-competitive 30-7 loss, their sixth straight, that left them at 2-9.
• Fans who have yet to see the Giants win a game in six tries at MetLife Stadium this season barely bothered to boo, putting about as much energy into that as the Giants seemed to put into trying to compete with the Buccaneers. Instead, they just headed for the exits before the third quarter was over.
• After the game Dexter Lawrence and Malik Nabers each called the team “soft.” Nabers went so far as to say “soft as f—k.” Lawrence said the Buccaneers “beat the shit” out of the Giants.

When I was asked before the season began, and even a few weeks ago, if I thought Daboll deserved to remain as head coach beyond this season, I consistently said yes. With the caveat that the one thing that could change that would be the season going completely off the rails and Daboll losing the locker room.

Well, the season has gone off the rails. And, with the non-competitive, seemingly disinterested way the Giants played on Sunday and players sounding after the game as though they had reached the point of hopelessness Daboll might be losing the locker room.

There are six games to go. That’s an eternity for a hopeless team. The Giants have lost six straight. They are an unwatchable 0-6 at home. After losing to the Carolina Panthers, watching the best quarterback on the team get benched and ultimately waived, and then being non-competitive Sunday from the first drive against a team that had itself lost four straight games it is fair to wonder if Daboll even finishes the season as the team’s head coach.

The Giants have a short week with a Thanksgiving Day game in Arlington, Texas against the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day. If the Giants put up another turkey on Thursday, it is not unimaginable to think co-owners John Mara and Steve Tisch will de-activate Daboll’s key card.

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Blogging the Boys

Cowboys vs Commanders: Cooper Rush’s career day helped offense get back on track

A big reason the Cowboys were able to have success on offense was the performance of quarterback Cooper Rush. The veteran quarterback had really struggled in his first two starts of the season, but he completely flipped the script on Sunday. Rush put together the best overall performance of his NFL career, completing 24 of 32 passes for 247 yards and two touchdowns. Rush’s 117.6 Passer Rating was a career-high, as was his 75% completion percentage.

Among all qualified quarterbacks in Week 12, Rush finished in the top 12 in EPA + CPOE (0.128 10th), EPA/Play (0.175 12th), and Success Rate (52.5% 6th). Rush wasn’t Patrick Mahomes back there, in fact he was still far from it, but he was decisive with his throws, protected the football, and made much better decisions than we’ve seen from him in weeks past.

3 heroes from the Cowboys’ 34-26 win over the Commanders

So many people stepped up for the Cowboys at Washington.

Josh Butler

Josh Butler might be the most interesting man in the league NFL fans have never heard of. If you are one of those people who were unfamiliar with him before yesterday, here’s a little backstory about him and the type of person he is.

Despite all the adversities Butler has been through, he was ready for his moment when his time came, and a performance like the one he had against the Commanders is something out of a Hollywood script. Butler started the game in place of the injured Trevon Diggs. Butler did a great job of keeping the Commanders’ top receiver, Terry McLaurin, in check for most of the game until the late-game coverage breakdown by much of the secondary.

Butler’s stat line is astounding: 12 tackles (10 solo) and three passes defended. Butler was technically sound and played physically with receivers at the point of the catch to knock the passes out of their hands. He very nearly intercepted a pass for Noah Brown and recorded a sack on the elusive Commanders quarterback, Jayden Daniels. The social media star/NFL defensive back, with over 3.3M followers on TikTok, earned a few more followers and snaps with his outstanding game.

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Bleeding Green Nation

8 edge rushers the Eagles could sign following the Brandon Graham injury

Philadelphia needs to add to their pass rush rotation.

1) Jason Pierre-Paul

Wouldn’t it be something if the Eagles replaced Graham’s spot on the roster with JPP?! Once upon a time, there was thought that the Eagles should’ve drafted the latter instead of the former. I’d say the Eagles are ultimately pretty happy with the career that Graham has had for them.

JPP turns 36 in January. He’s younger than Graham, who turned 36 in April earlier this year.

2) Melvin Ingram

Ingram, 35, also overlapped with Fangio in Miami last year. He played 95 of the Dolphins’ defensive snaps, logging 1.5 sacks and one TFL.

3) Justin Houston

Houston, who turns 36 in January, played seven games for the Carolina Panthers in 2023. He had half of a sack and two TFLs before requesting his release.

Houston then signed with Fangio’s Dolphins just days before their playoff game against the Kansas City Chiefs.

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ESPN

NFL Week 12: What losses mean for the Commanders, Texans, Bears

On paper, Sunday afternoon’s Week 12 NFL games didn’t exactly look like the most entertaining day of football, given that there were exactly zero matchups between teams with winning records. Instead, while the second slate of games ended up being one-sided, the early window delivered a series of frantic finishes and shocking turns. The final few minutes of regulation in those games were the best advertisement the NFL could ever do for the RedZone channel.

[T]he Commanders pulled off something that was even more miraculous than their Hail Mary victory over the Bears and still managed to lose by eight points. It was a weird day.

let’s talk through three teams with young quarterbacks who were involved in dramatic games Sunday, both because they played in a compelling contest and because it’s a good time to discuss what’s going on with them. They all lost their games, but are they and their teams heading in the right direction?

Chicago Bears (4-7)

Week 12 result: Lost to the Vikings, 30-27

Through the past two weeks, Williams looks significantly better than he did at his worst under Waldron. With the Bears unable to make significant changes to their offensive line or their personnel, there has been a clear mandate to the quarterback: Get the ball out or get running.

Through Week 10, Williams’ average pass came after 2.90 seconds, which was the 25th-quickest time for any signal-caller. He was holding the ball too long too often. When he held the ball for more than four seconds over that span, his 19.6 QBR ranked 29th in the league. It felt as if he was emulating the hero ball he had to play for stretches at USC, just against far tougher competition at the professional level.

Over the past two games, there has been a clear emphasis on getting the ball out quicker, through playcalling, play design and Williams’ decision-making. He has averaged just 2.42 seconds before releasing passes, a rate topped only by Tua Tagovailoa over this two-game span. Unsurprisingly, getting rid of the football has also helped his sack rate; after being taken down nine times in 39 tries by the Patriots in Week 10, he has been sacked six times on 84 dropbacks by the Packers and Vikings combined.

It’s one thing to throw quickly, but Williams is also having some success making those throws. When getting rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less over the past two games, he is 35-of-44 for 277 yards and a touchdown. Those aren’t spectacular numbers, but they’re a building block for steady gains the Bears didn’t have on offense before.

With all of that in place, the magic that made Williams an easy selection as the No. 1 pick has popped more often. He hasn’t been dominant, but he has looked much more confident and decisive as a pure passer in the dropback game.

In a universe in which the Bears can defend a Hail Mary and successfully hit a 46-yard field goal, they’re 6-5 and in the thick of the playoff picture in the NFC. That would be nice for Eberflus, but if fans continue to see this version of Williams the rest of the way, their long-term excitement over him will overcome the short-term frustration of missing out on the playoffs.

Houston Texans (7-5)

Week 12 result: Lost to the Titans, 32-27

Stroud threw five interceptions all of last season. That sort of interception rate is almost impossible to sustain year-on-year, but he’s now up to nine picks in 12 games, and even that number has been aided by a generous number of dropped interceptions. He ends up on different pages from his receivers too often, and by the end of this game, it felt as if he wasn’t confident with the ball. He was missing open receivers on checkdowns with bad ball placement. Again, that’s not a talent issue.

Bobby Slowik’s offense is almost entirely reliant on Stroud to be magical, often while behind schedule. This season, the Texans have dropped to 18th in EPA per play on first down and 29th on second down. They’re not doing enough on early downs to move the chains or stay ahead of schedule.

In part, that’s because the run game has been inconsistent. Mixon has been excellent at picking up short-yardage runs with his vision and has had some big plays, but he turned 14 carries into 22 yards Sunday. The Texans didn’t run for a single first down all game, something they’ve done twice this season. The rest of the league has done it only once combined.

By EPA, just 33.7% of Houston’s running plays are successful in terms of keeping them on schedule to move the chains. That’s the league’s second-worst mark, ahead of only the Raiders. This was a problem last season, when their 35.6% mark was the fourth-worst figure, but the passing offense made up for it with better efficiency on early downs.

Instead, Stroud is facing a run of third-and-forevers. The average Texans third down has come with 8.2 yards to go, the second longest for any team. Nearly 39% of their third downs have come with 10 or more yards to go, which is the highest rate. Stroud has actually converted those at a higher rate (25%) than league average (17.5%), but no coordinator has a playbook for third-and-a-mile.

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Texans have a 91% chance of winning the South. After an offseason when Houston fans dreamed about something much more, though, I’m not sure this team is playing at a level where a deep playoff run is in the cards.

Washington Commanders (7-5)

Week 12 result: Lost to the Cowboys, 34-26

Since 2000, 94 teams have started drives inside their 20-yard line, with 40 seconds or less left to go, out of timeouts, and needing a touchdown to potentially tie or win the game. The Commanders are the first of those teams to score a touchdown in that situation. More teams have scored defensive touchdowns in those situations (three). It’s more likely an offense will complete a Hail Mary than score a touchdown in such a desperate situation. The Commanders have done both at home in Daniels’ rookie season.

Obviously, being defeated at home by a Cowboys team that had lost five straight games isn’t exactly a great result, even if the fans got their money’s worth along the way. Before the game and for most of the contest, there was plenty of chatter about how the Commanders were dealing with the aftereffects of hitting the “Kliff Cliff,” the idea that defenses figure out Kingsbury’s offenses as the season goes along, leading to impressive first halves of the season and disappointing second halves.

Is it a real thing? I wouldn’t rule it out, but some of the evidence I’ve seen backing it up isn’t sound. Although there’s no clear definition of what a “Kliff Cliff” would look like, most of the evidence I’ve seen has pointed out that his squads at Texas Tech and with the Arizona Cardinals won more games and scored more points in the first half of seasons than they did in the second.

That’s a pretty clear trend, but is it proof there’s something innately wrong with Kingsbury’s coaching? I’m not so sure. For one, the college data has one really obvious flaw: scheduling. Teams begin their seasons with games against opponents from outside their conference, and while that can mean playing a powerhouse in a dream game, it usually means beating up an overmatched smaller school. Texas Tech dropped 61 on Stephen F. Austin, 59 on Sam Houston and 69 on UTEP early in the season with Kingsbury at the helm. That’s not some great scheme. It’s scheduling.

If we do this same exercise for the college years but include only the nine games Tech played in the Big 12 each season, there’s still an effect, but it’s not as prevalent.

What about the pro game? In 2019, the Cardinals actually scored more points per game during the second half of the season, so while their record declined slightly, it doesn’t appear to have been an offensive issue. In 2022, they struggled throughout the season, but quarterback Kyler Murray played just one full game during the second half of the year, as he missed two games with a hamstring injury, came back and then tore his ACL early in a loss to the Patriots. It seems bizarre to include those years as evidence that teams figure out Kingsbury’s offense late in the season.

Plus, in 2021, Murray missed three games at the end of the first half and the beginning of the second half. Colt McCoy went 2-1 in his absence, but a bigger issue might have been losing wideout DeAndre Hopkins to hamstring and knee injuries. Hopkins had 486 receiving yards and seven touchdowns during the first eight games of the season, but he played just two games the rest of the way.

I find the college arguments to be specious because of scheduling and the defense falling off far more significantly than the offense, while the Cardinals lost their quarterback and best offensive player in back-to-back seasons for almost the entire second half after having them for all of the first. Those seem like compounding factors.

If the Commanders are struggling institutionally on offense, the run game is the most likely culprit. Through their 7-2 start, they were producing successful runs on 47.8% of their carries, the highest rate of any ground game in the league. They ranked seventh in rush yards over expectation per carry and did that without a recognized lead back in the mix.

Since Week 10, they’ve kept up the success rate, with their 48% mark ranking fifth. They just haven’t hit any big plays. They’ve dropped to 29th in rush yards over expectation per carry, which is closely tied to big plays.

The Commanders’ third-down performance has suffered. Through Week 9, they were converting just under 46% of their third downs, the fourth-best rate in the league. Since then, they’ve dropped to 31.7%, which is 29th. That might typically be chalked up to the third downs being more difficult, but the average distance needed to convert those third downs has been virtually identical across both those stretches.

And again, schedule matters. Washington topped 30 points three times during the first half of the season. It had a great day against the Browns, but its other big games came against the Bengals, who ranked 29th in EPA per play, and the Panthers, who are 31st. The first two games of this losing streak came against the Steelers and Eagles, two of the league’s five best defenses. The Cowboys decidedly are not, but again, the Commanders got to a reasonable offensive performance by the end of the day.

Daniels was playing like an MVP candidate for the first two months of the season. It’s tough for anyone to keep up that level of play, let alone a rookie. That was always going to be difficult to sustain given the quality of talent on this roster. If he has settled in as a good quarterback with special moments for the rest of the season, that’s still an incredibly valuable player and a franchise-altering addition for the Commanders. Yes, 7-5 feels disappointing after a 7-2 start, but every single Washington fan would have been thrilled to find out their team would have a winning record in late November. There’s enough here to get them over the line and into the postseason.

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Pro Football Talk

Referee Land Clark shouldn’t have let Nick Sirianni play games with penalty decision

On Thursday night, something similar happened. Coach Mike Tomlin went back and forth on whether to accept or decline the illegal touching foul that was called on third and two from the Pittsburgh 25. Tomlin, however, wasn’t trying to play games.

“I thought it was a grounding initially,” Tomlin said after the game. “I couldn’t hear the officials. I thought it was a grounding. When I realized that it wasn’t ruled a grounding, I got information from them and made the call that we wanted to make. The distance was more important to us. If it wasn’t grounding, we weren’t moving them five yards back. They were potentially kicking into the wind, so we wanted to stop them and make the field goal a longer one.”

Sirianni, in contrast, changed his mind after seeing what the Rams were planning to do, if the penalty had been declined. While there’s nothing wrong with Sirianni taking advantage of the situation, Clark shouldn’t have let him.

On Friday, in connection with Tomlin changing his mind, we asked the league whether there’s a standard deadline for making a decision on whether to take or to decline a penalty. Said the league, “The officials do allow the coach to change his mind in terms of whether to accept or decline a penalty within a reasonable period of time, all at the judgement of the referee.”

It’s not reasonable to let the coach see what the other team will do if the penalty is accepted or declined before making a final decision. The fact that it’s not a common part of overall coaching strategy during a game shows that it shouldn’t happen.

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