Washington drops, but is still a playoff team…for now.
The Washington Commanders had two games against tough opponents over a 4-day period, and they lost both of them. Losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers two Sundays ago, and the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night have dropped them to 7-4, and also dropped them from the 2nd seed in the NFC to the 7th seed. Washington was getting placed in the Top 3 by some power rankers, but that seems like a long time ago. They’re comfortably still in the Top 10 on most lists, but there are a lot of questions being asked about Jayden Daniels’ rib injury, Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, and some preseason concerns that comes up when a team is going through a losing streak.
The Washington Commanders had their mini-bye following their Thursday Night Football loss to the Eagles. Next up is a home game against the Dallas Cowboys that should be a reset game to get the team back on track. The rest of their schedule has plenty of other opportunities to rack up some wins, and prepare for their rematch against the Eagles in Week 17. Some of the shine is off the team right now, but a healthy Jayden Daniels leading the Commanders in a convincing win over the Cowboys in front of rowdy home crowd does wonders for public opinion, even if Dallas is finding new ways every week to embarrass themselves.
These losses dropped them in most power rankings, but they are still top 10 for twelve of this week’s twenty five lists. Washington already cashed on FanDuel’s 6 1⁄2 win O/U from before the season. The Commanders odds have all dropped since last week, except for odds to make the playoffs.
Making the playoffs(-750 —-> -600)
Winning the division(+195 —-> +450)
Winnings the conference(+1200 —-> +1500)
Winning the Super Bowl(+2500 —–> -3800)
High: 8
Low: 13
Average: 9.7
#8
Yahoo Sports(Schwab)
The Commanders trailed 12-10 at Philadelphia with eight minutes left when a fourth-down gamble didn’t work. It was a closer loss than we’ll remember. If Washington handles business in its next three games vs. Dallas, Tennessee and New Orleans, the Commanders will be at 10 wins and that’ll be fine. Last week: 7
USA Today(Davis)
The team contends nothing is wrong with rookie QB Jayden Daniels … even though he’s played his least efficient (59.1% completion rate, 74.9 passer rating) and impactful (23 rushing yards, 1 TD generated) football during the current two-game losing streak. Last week: 7
NFL Trade Rumors(Woodie)
In losses to the Steelers and Eagles, the Commanders might be learning they’re still a year away from true contention with the NFL’s elite. First-round QB Jayden Daniels continues to impress, and they aren’t out of the division hunt yet. Last week: 9
#9
Sporting News(Iyer)
The Commanders are looking more like a shaky wild-card team, as the tougher teams on their schedule have given them difficulty. The first-place Eagles were the latest after falling to the Ravens and Steelers. Washington has a favorable slate ahead to rebound and finish strong. Last week: 7
Clutch Points(Johrendt)
The Commanders came out on the wrong side of their Thursday Night Football matchup against the Eagles, even with their late-game comeback attempt. Daniels and the entire offense had a disappointing showing, even with touchdowns from Brian Robinson Jr. and Zach Ertz. Last week: 4
Sportsnaut(Johnson)
The Washington Commanders are the second-best team in the NFC East. If you asked Washington’s coaching staff and front office if they’d consider being a Wild Card contender that is considered one of the 10 best NFL teams in 2024, they’d sign up for it in a heartbeat. So, while Jayden Daniels (89.6 QB rating, 59.5% completion rate and 232 pass ypg in last four games) is hitting a bit of the rookie wall, Washington remains in a phenomenal spot moving forward. Last week: 7
Pro Football Talk
The offense is getting sluggish, and the coaching on Thursday night was not good enough. Last week: 6
Fox Sports(Helman)
The Commanders can deny it if they want to, but Jayden Daniels looks like a different player since the rib injury he suffered roughly a month ago. Hopefully, the long weekend off provided him some time to recover, because Washington’s ceiling looks much lower when Daniels isn’t firing on all cylinders. Last week: 7
WalterFootball
The Redskins aren’t ready to compete with the big boys yet. They’ll be like the Texans last year. They’ll make the playoffs and perhaps win in the first round until losing to one of the top teams. Jayden Daniels needs another receiver and better tackle play. Last week: 7
Bleacher Report
The Washington Commanders have been one of the NFL’s biggest surprises this season. But after a 7-2 start, the Commanders have dropped consecutive games to division-leading teams. Now 1.5 games back of Philadelphia with a head-to-head loss, Washington’s chances in the NFC East aren’t looking great.
As Jeff Kerr of CBS Sports noted, the rib injury that Daniels has been playing through in recent weeks has clearly limited the electric rookie—and the Commanders offense.
“Washington has averaged only 253 yards in those two games on just 4.1 yards per play while converting 30.8 percent of their third downs. The biggest indicator of their struggles is the rushing yards quarterback Jayden Daniels has totaled over the last two games—only 23.
With Daniels limited running the football, that takes away the biggest strength of his game. In that two-game stretch, Daniels completed 59.1 percent of his passes for 393 yards with one touchdown to one interception and a 73.9 passer rating—and that one touchdown was in the final minute Thursday with the game already decided.”
Analyst’s Take
Yes, the Commanders have come back to earth these past few weeks. But that doesn’t change the fact that no one expected Washington to be in in the playoff chase this season.
In a perfect world, Washington’s bye would be now, offering Daniels a chance to get healthier. But the Commanders should at least benefit from a softened schedule. They don’t play another team with a winning record until their rematch with the Eagles in D.C. in Week 16. — Davenport Last week: 7
Bleeding Green Nation(Gowton)
Jayden Daniels has looked much more mortal in recent weeks. Losing to the Eagles was a big blow to their chances of winning the NFC East. Last week: 7
Sharp Football Analysis
Last week: 8
#10
ESPN
Preseason hot seat: CB Emmanuel Forbes Jr.
Current temperature of hot seat: Boiling
Forbes opened the season as the starter, but he missed two games with a thumb injury, and he hasn’t started since. The 2023 first-round pick has played just eight snaps in the past four games combined. Washington needed him to improve from a tough rookie season, but he has not, which in part precipitated a trade for corner Marshon Lattimore. Washington will need to address the position even more after the season. If it cuts Forbes before June 1, it will cost them $9.1 million in dead cap money and provide no cap relief — and actually would cost them $4.9 million. That could mean he sticks around another year. — John Keim Last week: 7
NFL.com(Edholm)
It’s hard not to notice the downward trend the Commanders’ attack has been on since Jayden Daniels suffered a rib injury in Week 7. The problem is, they need their offense to carry them past their defensive issues. A step up in competition might be a factor; either way, for the first time since September, we’re starting to see some cracks in their armor. They’re a miraculous Hail Mary away from having three losses in their past four games, with two narrow wins over teams with losing records keeping them afloat in that span. Washington continues to have an 81 percent chance of making the postseason, per Next Gen Stats, but a lack of consistent playmakers and an inability to finish off games is a bit concerning. Facing the Cowboys and Titans at home gives the Commanders a chance to rebound. If they continue to struggle to move the ball or put points on the board, then it might be time to worry. Last week: 8
The Athletic(Kendall)
Seat temperature check: Cool
Even after a two-game losing streak, almost everyone in Washington is still smiling. Jayden Daniels is the biggest reason for that, but Dan Quinn deserves credit, too. Quinn’s upbeat, high-octane style has been perfect for a Commanders organization that needed some good vibes. If there’s a concern, it’s that Daniels is 24th in EPA per dropback (minus-.08) in the last two weeks compared with second in the first nine weeks (.35). It could be a blip, but it could be defenses figured out the rookie and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. Last week: 9
The 33rd Team(Mosher)
The Washington Commanders have lost back-to-back games for the first time all season and were a Hail Mary away from losing three of their last four. Is the league catching up to Jayden Daniels? No.
However, the rest of the roster is being exposed a bit. The defense is just not very talented, and Daniels doesn’t have a reliable weapon to target in the passing game besides Terry McLaurin. Washington shouldn’t have any problem reaching double-digit wins, but it isn’t nearly as scary as we once thought. Last week: 9
Pro Football Network(Rolfe)
- Offense+ Rank: 4
- Defense+ Rank: 23
- Special Teams Rank: 10
- SOS Rank Through Week 11: 23
The way the Washington Commanders started the season gave them some wiggle room for an almost inevitable wobble at some point. They’ve lost to four good teams this year and three who rank inside the top 10 of our rankings.
The manner of the defeat in Week 11 was not ideal, with the offense largely looking blunted. But it’s still a top-five unit, and Washington’s defense did a solid job for large parts of the game against Philly, which will be encouraging.
The Commanders’ schedule ranks as the third-easiest the rest of the way, and that starts this week with a Cowboys team that is in tatters. They must not overlook the next two weeks against Dallas and Tennessee because if the Commanders can get into their bye at 9-4, they will potentially only need one more win to secure a playoff spot. Last week: 10
New York Post(Dunleavy)
Without starting kicker Austin Seibert, head coach Dan Quinn bypassed a potential fourth-quarter, go-ahead, 44-yard field-goal attempt from fill-in Zane Gonzalez to go for a fourth down that failed in the loss to the Eagles. Jayden Daniels threw for an interception and a touchdown, and Brian Robinson Jr. rushed for a touchdown after missing the previous game. Last week: 7
The Score
The Commanders rank 30th in the NFL in rushing defense, and Daron Payne has just one tackle for loss after posting 13 last campaign and 18 in 2022. Last week: 9
NumberFire
Last week: 6
#11
CBS Sports(Prisco)
Jayden Daniels doesn’t look right. He looks like the rib injury is affecting his play. The extra days off will be good for him. Last week: 10
Sports Illustrated(Orr)
One thing that has been fairly remarkable about the Commanders’ run thus far is how remarkably well-timed the offense is. If you look at Daniels’s time-to-throw splits, only the second Giants game is a major outlier, and even in games where he appears to struggle (and struggle is a very relative word compared to the rest of the NFL and considering the fact that he’s wearing a kevlar vest right now to shield a rib injury), he’s still only about 0.10 second per throw off from Tom Brady-like numbers. That’s cool. Last week: 10
Odds Shark
Last week: 8
#12
Team Rankings
Last week: 11
#13
The Ringer(Lee)
Last week: 11