Clutch play becomes a habit
The 2024 Washington Commanders should come with a warning: not suitable for fans with cardiac conditions.
The thrilling overtime drive to defeat the Atlanta Falcons 30-24, capped the Commanders’ fourth fourth-quarter/OT comeback of the season and marked the fourth game-winning drive of Jayden Daniels’ stellar rookie campaign. Counting the Week 15 victory over the New Orleans Saints, it was the fifth time the Commanders had overcome poor play early in games to get the win. Such games account for 45% of their 11-win total.
Jayden Daniels has led the third most game winning drives of any QB this season (tie w/Jared Goff, Jalen Hurts; behind Patrick Mahomes 7, Sam Darnold & Matthew Stafford 5); and the Commanders rank 2nd in fourth quarter comebacks behind the Chiefs, with 5.
The clutch play has not just been reserved for the end of games. To defeat the Falcons, the Commanders converted on fourth down three times. So far this season, they have gone for it on fourth down 22 times, converting on 19 attempts. According to ESPN, their 86.4% fourth down conversion rate is the highest in NFL history among teams with a minimum of 20 attempts. Furthermore, they have scored 108 points after fourth down conversions this season, and surpassed the 2008 Patriots on Sunday night for the most Expected Points Added (41.7) on fourth downs in NFL history.
One way the Commanders have elevated their fans’ blood pressure this season is by committing mistakes, including costly penalties. Against the Falcons, the Commanders committed 13 accepted penalties for 108 yards. The Commanders have committed the 11th most penalties this season (106) and rank 9th in penalty yards (905). While that is not ideal, and is certainly something to work on next season, two teams with more penalty yards might meet in the Super Bowl (Ravens 1,037 yds – 2nd; Lions 939 yds – 5th).
While fans can debate how many of the penalties committed in this game were fair calls – and there were many worth discussing – both figures represented season highs for the Commanders. The previous high number of penalties was 10, in Week 2 against the Giants, and the previous high yardage total was 93 yds, set last week against the Eagles. In fact, the three highest penalty yardage totals have been set in the last three games. The main reason that the penalty yardage totals have been so high in recent games has been the high number of pass interference calls. That’s something the coaches might want to address before next season.
While the coaches work on making adjustments to maintain and build momentum heading into the playoffs, let’s review which players got playing time, who stepped up, and who kept the game exciting in the Commanders’ fourth consecutive win down the final stretch of the season.
Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images
OFFENSE
As I mentioned above, Jayden Daniels delivered the win by leading his fourth game-winning drive, following his fourth 4th quarter comeback of the season.
Along the way to sealing the win, he completed 24/36 passes (66.7%) for 227 yds, 13 first downs, 3 TDs, and 1 INT, while taking 5 sacks for 31 yds. He also ran 16 times, including 8 scrambles, for 127 yds (7.9 Y/A) and 7 first downs. Daniels’ 81.3% rushing success rate was second on the team, and first among players with more than 1 running attempt. In fact, it was the highest success rate of any NFL player with a minimum of 10 carries in Week 17. That is not surprising, since Daniels has the second-highest rushing success rate (63.2%) of any player with more than 100 attempts this season, after Josh Allen (64.7%).
Daniels’ performance against Atlanta was good for a Total QBR of 75.9. After 17 games, he ranks 4th in the NFL with a total QBR of 72.4 for the season.
Daniels’ completion percentage was lowered somewhat by 3 drops by receivers (Drop Rate 8.6%). According to Pro Football Reference, he made 6 Bad Throws . His 17.1% Bad Throw rate was roughly half that of his opponent (Michael Penix, 1 Bad Throws, 34.3%), and was his fourth-worst mark of the season.
According to Pro Football Reference, Daniels was pressured 8 times, or 16.3% of dropbacks, his 8th highest Pressure Rate of the season (or 9th lowest). Pro Football Focus counted 17 pressures on Daniels, which would tie the Ravens game as the fourth-highest number of pressures he has faced this season. According to PFF’s figures, he faced pressure on 34.7% of dropbacks. Although PFF tends to count about twice as many pressures per game, both services agree that Daniels faced the 8th highest Pressure Rate of the season.
Brian Robinson Jr was Washington’s (distant) second-leading rusher, with 13 carries for 60 yds (4.6 Y/A) and 4 first downs. He ranked 4th on the team in rushing success rate at just 38.5%. Robinson averaged 3.3 Yards Before Contact/Attempt and gained an average of 1.3 Yards After Contact/Attempt. Robinson also caught 2/2 passes for 9 yds.
Chris Rodriguez Jr was used sparingly, but produced when he got touches. He rushed 5 times for 16 yds, 2 first downs and 1 TD. While his 3.2 Y/A rushing average won’t win any awards, his 80.0% rushing success rate was second only to Daniels among Commanders with more than one carry. Rodriguez also had to do most of the work himself. He averaged just 1.0 YBC/Att and picked up an average of 2.2 YAC/Att. Rodriguez also caught his only passing target for 12 yds, with 11 yds after the catch.
Jeremy McNichols did not see much action, with just 1 rushing attempt for 5 yds. He didn’t fare much better as a receiver, catching 2/3 targets for 5 yds.
Pass Protection
Brian Robinson allowed 1 sack and 2 QB hurries on 9 pass block attempts, equating to a Pressure Rate of 33%. Neither of the other RBs allowed a pressure in limited pass blocking snaps.
For the season, Robinson has allowed 7 pressures on 55 pass block attempts (Pressure Rate 12.7%). Jeremy McNichols has allowed just 1 hurry in 27 pass block attempts (Pressure Rate 3.7%), and CRod has allowed 1 hurry in 11 pass block reps. Robinson’s pass blocking this season is similar to previous seasons (2023: 10.3% PR; 2022: 11.5% PR). The other RBs do not have enough pass blocking reps for blocking stats to be meaningful.
I haven’t done the stats of all NFL RBs in pass protection yet, but anything over 10% of pass blocking reps seems too high for comfort.
Olamide Zaccheaus picked up where he left off against the Eagles, catching 8/9 passes (88.9%) at an ADOT of 6.2 yds and breaking 1 tackle for 85 yds, 5 first downs and 1 TD. The one pass he didn’t catch was a drop. Zaccheaus averaged 6.1 YAC/reception and was the Commanders’ most productive receiver at 2.18 Y/RR. Zaccheaus also led the team in rushing success rate this week, with 1 rushing attempt for an 8-yard first down.
Jamison Crowder was the second leading receiver among the WRs, catching 3/5 targets for 25 yds and 1 first down (1.04 Y/RR).
Terry McLaurin was effectively taken out of the game by the Falcons’ secondary, with just 1 catch out of 7 targets, including 1 dropped pass. According to PFF, McLaurin made his lone reception when matched up against DE Matthew Judon. Against CB1 AJ Terrell, he was 0/4 with one drop. PFF counted two fewer targets to McLaurin than everyone else.
In his Commanders’ debut, KJ Osborn did not draw a target, but he did manage to draw a 10 yard holding penalty.
Zach Ertz stepped up as the Commanders’ second leading receiver, catching 6/7 targets for 72 yards, 4 first downs and 2 TDs, including the game winner. Proving his doubters wrong, he picked up an average of 6.5 YAC/reception while making 3/3 contested catches. He was the Commanders’ 3rd most productive receiver on an opportunity adjusted basis at 1.85 Y/RR.
John Bates caught his lone passing target for a 14 yd reception. He was mainly used as a blocker.
The Commanders’ OL had a tough time against the Falcons’ defense which, according to Pro Football Reference, ranks just 18th in the NFL in pressuring opposing QBs and 14th in rushing yards allowed (17th in Y/A). Michael Deiter relieved a banged up Tyler Biadasz at C and Trent Scott relieved an injured Cornelius Lucas, who was filling in for Andrew Wylie at RT.
Pass Protection
The pass blocking performance was spotty, as judged by Pressure Rate allowed. All but one of the starters allowed pressures at higher rates than their season averages:
- LT Brandon Coleman (52 PB snaps): 2 hurries, 1 sack, pressure rate 5.77%
- LG Nick Allegretti (53 PB snaps): 2 hurries, pressure rate 3.77%
- C Tyler Biadasz (13 PB snaps): 1 hurry, pressure rate 7.69%
- C Michael Deiter (40 PB snaps): 2 hurries, 1 sack, pressure rate 7.50%
- RG Sam Cosmi (53 PB snaps): 0 pressures
- RT Cornelius Lucas (35 PB snaps): 2 hurries, pressure rate 5.71%
- RT Trent Scott (19 PB snaps): 3 hurries, pressure rate 15.79%
Run Blocking
PFF graded the OL’s run blocking as follows
- LT Brandon Coleman 51.0
- LG Nick Allegretti 61.8
- C Tyler Biadasz 65.9
- C Michael Deiter 57.8
- RG Sam Cosmi 78.5
- RT Cornelius Lucas 73.2
- RT Trent Scott 43.4
Penalties
The Commanders’ OL was flagged 6 times for 50 total penalty yards.
While Sam Cosmi was putting in the best blocking performance on the OL, he was also drawing the most penalties. To be fair to Cosmi, at least one of the penalties appears to have been a bad call. Nevertheless, the record will show that Cosmi was flagged twice for holding and once for a false start for a total of 25 yds. Brandon Coleman chipped in with a holding call and a false start for another 15 yards. Not to be left out, Tyler Biadasz brought up the rear with a 10 yard holding penalty.
Photo by Timothy Nwachukwu/Getty Images
DEFENSE
Dorance Armstrong had a strong outing with 1 tackle, 3 assists, 1 sack, 1 tackle for loss and 1 forced fumble, with 1 missed tackle. He led the Commanders in pressuring the QB with 4 hurries and the sack in 30 pass rush attempts, equating to a pressure rate of 16.7%. According to PFF, but not PFR, Armstrong dropped into coverage once, allowing a 6 yard reception by Bijan Robinson. This should never be allowed to happen again, if it did happen at all.
Dante Fowler had a somewhat similar stat line, with 1 tackle and 1 assist, 1 sack, 1 TFL and 1 forced fumble. He was less effective than usual at rushing the passer, with just 1 QB hit to go with the sack for an unimpressive pressure rate of 6.9%. Fowler collected a 10 yd roughing the passer penalty, which goes with the territory in today’s NFL.
The other DEs were fairly quiet. Jalyn Holmes got on the board with 1 TFL. Javontae Jean-Baptiste made 1 tackle and 1 assist. Clelin Ferrell had 2 tackle assists. Hopefully they are resting for the playoffs.
Johnny Newton made 1 tackle and 2 assists. He generated 1 QB hurry in 17 pass rush snaps (5.9% pressure rate).
Daron Payne played the majority of snaps at DE, with minimal impact, recording just 1 tackle and 1 assist. He generated just 1 QB hurry in 31 pass rush snaps (3.2% pressure rate). Payne was assessed a 5 yard neutral zone infraction penalty on 3rd and 10 at the Atlanta 44 yard line with 7 seconds remaining in regulation and the score tied. That penalty set up an even better one by a fellow Commander on the following play to move the Falcons into field goal range. Fortunately for both players, the Falcons’ usual kicker, Younghoe Koo, missed the game with an injury.
In his long awaited return from injury, Jonathan Allen played on a snap count. He recorded just 1 solo tackle and managed to generate 2 QB hurries in 18 pass rush snaps (11.1% pressure rate).
Sheldon Day had just 1 tackle assist.
Washington’s linebackers had their lowest combined production of the season against the Falcons.
Bobby Wagner played more of a supporting role than leading on defense, with 6 tackle assists and 1 pass breakup. He was targeted 3 times in coverage, allowing 2 receptions for 10 yds. He generated 1 QB hurry in the pass rush.
Frankie Luvu was unusually quiet, with just 1 tackle assist and 2 missed tackles. He was targeted twice in coverage, allowing 2 receptions for 9 yds. He also generated 1 QB hurry and did not make any defensive stops for just the third time this season.
NFL offenses have a way of honing in on a defense’s weakest link. On Sunday, the Falcons targeted Michael Davis in coverage 11 times. He rewarded their attention by allowing 9 receptions for 105 yds, and was the most leaky Commander in coverage at 2.92 yds/coverage snap. He did finish second on the team with 6 solo tackles, but that tends to happen when a defender allows a lot of receptions. On a positive note, 3 of his tackles were defensive stops, which was the highest total of any Commander.
Davis also helped the Falcons with 2 DPI calls for 18 yards, including a 13-yarder in the final 7 seconds of regulation to move them into long field goal range. Fortunately for the Commanders, the kicker that Washington had planned to start the season with missed from 56 yards to send the game into overtime. Sometimes things just have a way of working out.
With all the passes going towards Davis, the other CBs had little to do.
Mike Sainristil allowed just 2 receptions out of 5 targets (40%) for 44 yds. He made 2 tackles and 1 assist, with 1 missed tackle. He finished the day at a respectable 1.05 yds/cov snp.
Noah Igbinoghene had 1 target and 0 receptions in 41 coverage snaps. He had 1 tackle assist on the afternoon. He should thank Davis for giving him the night off.
Benjamin St-Juste was not targeted in 6 coverage snaps. He made 3 solo tackles in run defense.
Quan Martin had his biggest game of the season. He was the Commanders’ leading tackler, with 7 tackles, 1 assist, and 1 missed tackle. None of his tackles were defensive stops (tackles causing failure of the offensive play). Martin was most impactful in pass defense, with 1 interception returned for 29 yds and 2 pass breakups. He was targeted 8 times in coverage and allowed just 1 completion (12.5% rec rate) by Drake London for 14 yds.
According to PFF (who counted 5 targets), Martin held 6’4” Drake London to 1/4 rec for 14 yds while blanking Bijan Robinson and Darnell Mooney on single targets. That’s a pretty good day at the office for Commanders’ free safety.
Jeremy Chinn also had a mixed game with 2 tackles and 3 assists, including 1 defensive stop, and 1 missed tackle. In 5 coverage targets, he broke up two passes and allowed 3 receptions for 41 yards and 1 TD.
Percy Butler got on the board with 1 tackle. He was not targeted in 13 coverage snaps.
Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images
SPECIAL TEAMS
Zane Gonazalez was a perfect 3/3 on extra points and 1/1 on a field goal from 31 yards, thanks no doubt to superb long snapping from Tyler Ott and rock solid holding by Tress Way.
Speaking of Tressler William, the Commanders’ longest serving player booted three punts for 153 yards (long 61, 51.0 YPA), with 2 returned for 23 yards, resulting in a net average of 43.3 yards per punt.
After his breakout performance at kick returner last week, Luke McCaffrey had a more pedestrian outing with 1 kick return for 29 yards.
Jamison Crowder reminded fans that he’s still got it, returning 2 punts for 41 yds (long 22 yds). He also conjured less pleasant memories when he nearly dropped one of them.
Jeremy Reaves set up a successful marriage proposal with 1 tackle and 1 assist in special teams coverage. Brycen Tremayne and Kevon Seymour celebrated their elevations to the active roster by making tackles as well. Percy Butler split the bill by making 1 tackle and missing another. Nick Bellore reminded everyone that he is the NFL’s co-leader in special teams tackles, with an assist to keep his name fresh on the leaders’ board.
Darrick Forrest was flagged for the second penalty of his career, a 10 yard offensive holding infraction on a punt. Mike Sainristil’s offsides infraction on a field goal block attempt extended the Falcons’ first drive and set up a Bijan Robinson touchdown.
Week 16 Poll Answer
Last week I asked readers to predict the Commanders’ playoff finish. 40% of poll respondents predicted the Commanders would enter the playoffs as the 7th seed (last place). A total of 48% of respondents predicted the Commanders would exit in the Wild Card round.
46% of voters were more hopeful, predicting a Wild Card win or better playoff finish.
Six percent of respondents chose the “Playoffs?! Playoffs?!” option. There were a lot of Eagles fans on the board last week, attempting to rationalize their team’s humiliating defeat, so I am guessing that’s where most of those votes came from. With the comeback win over the Falcons, the Commanders proved them wrong once again.
Gone Fishin’
The Stats and Snaps will be taking Week 18 off for a much needed holiday on Queensland’s beautiful Sunshine Coast. It will return in two weeks, rested, tanned and ready to recount the Commanders’ glorious Wild Card playoff win.
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