Survey results!!
We have a playoff football game tonight!!
Commanders fans are rightly chuffed to be back in the playoffs for the first time since 2020, and they are hoping for the team’s first playoff win since 2005.
But are they expecting a win?
According to this week’s Reacts survey of Hogs Haven readers, they are, indeed.
Who’s winning?
The question, of course, becomes a bit more complex when survey respondents are asked to predict the outcome of the game adjusted for the point spread. For Sunday night’s wild card matchup in Tampa Bay, the Commanders are 3-point underdogs.
Below, you can see the results, from left to right, of the Commanders fans, Buccaneers fans, and national fans (registered survey participants from all 32 fan bases who responded to an email survey this week), respectively.
A few people who answered the first question to pick the winner didn’t answer the second one related to point spread, so the percentages are slightly different, but you get the point — about 3⁄4 of Hogs Haven readers expect the Commanders to win outright on Sunday night.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Tampa Bay fans see it completely differently, with only 18% predicting a Washington win, while 64% not only believe that the Bucs will win, but that they will also cover the spread.
The national survey splits the baby, with a majority of fans (54%) backing Washington — but that’s with the benefit of a +3 point spread.
What’s clear is that the game is competitive enough that each fan base is very confident in its team, and the more impartial national audience isn’t far from a 50/50 split with a 3-point spread factored in.
What the two fan bases do agree on is that they believe tonight’s game will be a high-scoring affair.
Despite having the highest over/under threshold of the six wild card round games, 63% of Tampa Bay fans and 64% of Washington fans predict that the total points scored by the two teams combined will be above 50.5. When you realize that Tampa is ranked 4th in scoring at 29.5 points per game while Washington is 5th at 28.5 ppg, it’s not hard to see why both fan bases lean so strongly in this direction.
Confidence & surprise
The belief in the Commanders reflected in the large majority of fans expecting a wild card round win is part of a broader confidence that fans have expressed in the team all season long.
Each week, we have asked the question: Are you confident in the direction of the Washington Commanders? All season long, the majority — usually a majority exceeding 92% — has answered “yes” to that question. This week, 99% of Hogs Haven readers answered that way again.
Confidence dipped to 74% following the Week 1 loss to the same Buccaneers that the Commanders will do battle with tonight, and it fell sharply to just 57% following a loss to the Dallas Cowboys at Northwest Stadium to put the cap on a mid-season 3-game losing streak, but the team hasn’t lost a game since, and will show up to Raymond James Stadium in Tampa tonight riding a 5-game win-streak to close out the season.
NFC East
There is certainly a huge confidence gap between the fan bases of the two playoff teams and those of the two teams that missed the playoffs this season, the Giants and Cowboys.
The 14-win Eagles, who hold the #2 seed in the NFC playoffs, have the strong confidence of their fans (94%). The Giants, who stumbled to a 3-14 record and the 3rd pick in the draft, don’t enjoy strong support at 30% confidence, but that figure far outstrips the confidence level of the Cowboys. A mere 5% of Dallas fans expressed confidence in the direction of their team.
It’s easy to see the effect of winning, but more importantly, of perceived competence and stability from the owner to the front office and the coaching staff. Cowboys and Giants fans perceive their teams’ situations to be in disarray to a greater or lesser extent, while Philly and Washington fans — and this is a very recent development for fans of the burgundy & gold — sense successful strategic planning and improving rosters.
Looking ahead to the divisional round matchup
What’s next after the Commanders beat the Buccaneers tonight?
Well, that depends on what happens in the Packers-Eagles game that kicks off at 4:30 (which means we will know the result before we play Tampa).
If the Eagles win, then Washington, as the 6th seed, would be the lowest-seeded remaining team in the NFC. That means that the Commanders would play the top-seeded Lions in the divisional round next week.
If the Packers win, as the 7th seed, they would play the Lions, and the Commanders would play the winner of Monday night’s Vikings-Rams game. That game would almost certainly be played on Sunday next week.
What does the national survey say about that Packers-Eagles game?
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Seventy-two percent of respondents not only think the Eagles will win, but that they will cover the 4.5-point spread as well. Personally, I have a lot more faith in the Packers.
The biggest (positive) surprise of the season
Just before I wrap this up, I thought I’d share the results of one more question from the national email survey.
The question asked which team has been the biggest positive surprise of the 2024 season.
You guessed it!
The Commanders were the most popular answer, with the Vikings and Broncos each polling well over 20% of the vote. Fans across the NFL have noticed what’s happening in Washington, aided, no doubt by the MNF performance (no punts) against the Bengals; the highlight play of October — the Hail Mary pass against the Bears; and the recent Sunday Night Football overtime win against the Falcons. These ‘winning moments’ were seen by millions of NFL fans, who now have a sense of how things have changed for the burgundy & gold.
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