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This past weekend, we looked at two free agent cornerbacks who are competing for backup spots on the Commanders roster, Noah Igbinoghene and James Pierre. Today, we’ll take a look at the other veteran free agent cornerback signed this offseason — Michael Davis — who was signed to step into the roster hole left when Kendall Fuller left to join the Dolphins.
Michael Davis
Michael Davis has been in the NFL since 2017, but his most significant playing time has come since 2019. His entire career, until signing as a free agent with the Commanders this offseason, had been spent with the Chargers. It’s easy to think that his former head coach, Anthony Lynn, may have had something to do with the team’s interest in Davis.
His best stretch of football came during the 2021 and 2022 seasons, when Davis allowed a completion rate of only 53 percent on 160 combined targets. He would also hold opponents to 11.9 yards per catch while coming away with 20 pass breakups and two interceptions.
In the past 5 seasons, Davis has played in 78 games, accumulating over 4,000 defensive snaps (he also has over 900 career special teams snaps, including 266 played in 2022-23).
He’s had double-digit passes defended in each of the past four seasons, and at least one interception per season since 2019. He has averaged about 60 tackles per season since 2020, with at least one tackle for loss in each of those seasons.
Davis vs Fuller
Basically, Davis was signed as Kendall Fuller’s replacement, so it seems like it might be useful to compare the two players. Comparing career statistics has some challenges — Fuller has been in the NFL a year longer than Davis, and played a lot more football than did Davis prior to 2019 — so I ran a simple query on the two players for the ‘23 season in hopes of a bit better apples-to-apples comparison.
I was surprised to find that Fuller and Davis are the same age. Fuller has been in the NFL since 2016, but was only 21 years old when he was drafted.
Despite playing in just 15 games last season, Fuller played an astonishing 1,021 snaps — a sign of how very bad Washington’s defense was. They simply couldn’t get off the field.
Two other things stand out to me when I look at these advanced defensive stats from Pro Football Reference:
First, Davis was being targeted deeper down the field. His Defensive Average Depth of Target was 12.2 yards, compared to 9.3 yards for Fuller. This difference is also reflected in the yards per completion stats (Davis 13.8; Fuller 11.8) and completion percentage (Davis 65.2%; Fuller 68.8%). Things seem to ‘even out’ a little bit when wrapped up into the opposing quarterbacks’ season passer rating when targeted (Davis 119.2; Fuller 120.4).
Second, Fuller appears to be a surer tackler, with a missed tackle rate of 6% compared to 12.7% for Davis. That’s not an outlier for Davis either. His missed tackle rate was 10% or higher in 5 of the 6 seasons since 2018 (with a high of 15.2% in 2019). In the same 6 seasons, Fuller averaged around 9.5%, and last year’s 6% number was only his 2nd-best.
It’s probably worth taking note of the disparity in air yards and yards after catch as well. Fuller was targeted at shallower depths, but gave up 73 more yards after the catch on 3 fewer receptions.
Without a doubt, PFF loves Fuller more. Here’s a comparison of their respective scores since 2019.
As you can see, Davis has routinely been awarded overall defensive grades between 54 and 63, with a single positive outlier of 73.8 in 2022. Fuller, meanwhile, has scored above 70 twice and above 80 twice, with his low-side outlier being a grade of 66.7 in 2020, when he returned to Washington after his championship stint in Kansas City.
How Michael Davis fits in Washington
The Commanders’ cornerback group is one that has had only a couple of changes this offseason, but they are significant ones. With the drafting of Mike Sainristil in the 2nd round, the Commanders’ brains trust chose a specialist slot defender, freeing up Quan Martin to play safety and Ben St-Juste to stay on the boundary. In replacing Fuller with Davis, the team changed the veteran leadership of the group. Aside from James Pierre and Noah Igninoghene, both of whom appear to be competing for backup roles on the roster, Davis will be the only cornerback in camp who has played out his initial NFL contract. At 29 years of age, he has to transition to a leadership role.
That is not a situation that Davis is used to. Two-time Pro Bowler Casey Hayward was the leader for the Chargers in the first half of Davis’ career, and he was followed by Chris Harris Jr., a four-time Pro Bowler who spent two seasons in Los Angeles.
But Davis is excited about being the “old head” in the Commanders’ defensive backfield because he can help mold his younger teammates and show them how to have long careers.
“As a young group, you have so much potential,” Davis said. “Usually when you work with a bunch of vets, they’re already in their own routine. They know what to do already. So, sometimes it’s kind of hard to talk to a vet. A young buck, they’re eager for information. They’re eager to learn.”
Davis has, of course, been very positive and confident in his comments about joining the Commanders.
I felt like this was the best place for me to be at, the best place for me to come here and improve myself; I couldn’t pass up on the opportunity.
I knew that I could be the perfect fit in his scheme. I know that Dan Quinn likes bigger corners — bigger and faster and taller corners — and I’m that.
Indeed, Davis is taller than Kendall Fuller, standing 6’2” as compared to Fuller’s 5’11”. He is slightly overtopped, however, by Ben St-Juste, who is listed at 6’3”.
PICK
In the hands of @chargers Michael Davis
— NFL on Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) December 27, 2022
Contract & future
Three years ago, when Davis was 26 years old and entering his 5th NFL season, he signed a 3-year contract with the Chargers that paid him an average of $8.4m per year. He played out that contract and then signed with the Commanders on a 1-year contract that pays him $3.2m with a signing bonus of $1.38m.
The current contract indicates that Washington is looking to Davis to provide short-term stability to the defensive roster, but it also shows that he is not seen to be as valuable as he was in 2021.
Heading into the 2023 season, Davis seemed to be ascending. Consider this analysis from the end of the 2022 season:
Following the season-ending injury to J.C. Jackson, however, Davis stepped into the lineup and played some of his best football to date down the stretch.
Per Pro Football Focus, from weeks 12-17, Davis recorded five overall game grades of 71.8 or higher (60.0 is deemed average), including a season-best 82.6 against the Rams. That strong stretch of play came after a first half to the season that saw Davis fail to record any single game grade over 68.0.
It’s from this inspired late-season play that Davis was named the Chargers’ most under-appreciated player by NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund.
“Davis carries a relatively high cap charge in 2023 ($9.4 million), but his computer vision charts show that he was highly productive in several alignments last season,” says Frelund. “Asked to do a lot, thanks to a slew of injuries that cost the Chargers some of his highest-value defensive teammates, Davis stepped up. Computer vision shows his fatigue was the seventh lowest among defensive backs who logged at least 60 percent of their team’s defensive snaps. He tied for sixth in the NFL with 15 passes defensed last season.”
That last number is what should stand out the most from Frelund. Davis, despite playing roughly half the season as a starter, ended the year with the sixth-most passes defended in the NFL. That’s incredible. It’s also a far-cry from where he was as a player during his down year in 2021. Now, Davis looks to be on track to start the 2023 season opposite Asante Samuel Jr. barring an immense leap in rehab from J.C. Jackson. But even if Jackson returns to the lineup sooner rather than later, it’ll be hard for the coaches to keep Davis off the field should he continue his strong play from a season ago.
In the end, Davis did not maintain his high level of play in 2023, which is probably why he hit the free agent market in March.
Davis will almost certainly play a lot of football for an underpowered Commanders CB group in 2024, but if he wants to extend his NFL career by staying with the Commanders in 2025 and beyond, he will need to excel in the defensive scheme under coordinator Joe Whitt and head coach Dan Quinn.
In the end, Davis seems to be aware of his situation in Washington. “I gotta be better than the last seven years,” Davis said this offseason. “I know I’ve had my spurts here and there. I think, for me, I gotta be more consistent. Consistency is key for everything in life.”