Will this be a shootout in the desert?
It’s week 4 of the NFL season and the 2-1 Washington Commanders will be facing a 1-2 Cardinals team on the road in Arizona on Sunday at 4:05 pm EDT. The Cardinals nearly won a high-scoring game against the Bills in week 1 and thoroughly dominated an injured Rams team week 2, before losing a defensive game against the Lions in week 3. None of the Cardinals opponents have been easy so far, and their near win against the Bills in week 1 looks better given that the Bills have been stomping on teams since then. Despite their losing record, the Cardinals have the 7th highest point differential in the NFL (Washington is 20th).
On offense, the Cardinals are coordinated by Drew Petzing, who previously coached with Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland and Minnesota. He runs an offense that utilizes multiple TEs to open up the run game while also creating opportunities to make deep throws to WRs. This offense fits well with the skillset of Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, who is noted for his deep throwing ability as well as ability to break the pocket and run around the edge.
On defense, the Cardinals are coordinated by Nicholas John Rallis as well as defensive head coach Jonathon Gannon, both formerly of the Eagles. They utilize a hybrid 4-2-5 defense that has more 3-4 principles up front, meaning the 4th man at the line will optionally drop back into coverage. Outside of All-Pro safety Budda Baker, there are not many big names on the Cardinals defense and the secondary is quite young. Notably, the Cardinals defense lacks pass rush, with an 18.4% pressure rate (tied for 26th in the NFL) and a low 23% blitz rate (19th in the NFL).
I asked Seth Cox of Revenge of the Birds five questions to better understand the state of the Cardinals and what to look for in this game.
1) The Cardinals haven’t won a playoff game since 2015 under Bruce Arians, but seem to be coming together and getting consistently better under Jonathon Gannon. How would you describe the state of the franchise, the moves the current from office and coaching staff are making, and what are your expectations (playoffs or otherwise) this year and next?
I think it is quiet optimism. However, after the last game where they had several chances to knock off one of the NFC’s top dogs, fans are getting a little over the competitive, moral victories and want to see the on-field results begin to catch up.
So, you have the reality that this roster is still a work in progress, with a top 10 DVOA offense, and improved DVOA defense (mind you improved from worst to 23rd thus far) and playing two Super Bowl contenders within a score of each other, but the frustration is that people want results now.
I think if they continue on this track of being about a 0.500 team, finishing with a competitive record that allows them to be into contention into late December and early January then it will ultimately be a successful season.
2) The Cardinals offense under Drew Petzing has seemed explosive this season, scoring 28 or more points in their first two games before coming down to Earth and only scoring 13 against the Lions. How would you describe the type of offense they run and how were the Lions able to shut it down?
I think it has to do with the fact that they love to bully teams out of 12/13 personnel and be able to run the ball, then open up things with deep shot play action passes.
Well, when two running backs from the Lions outgain the entire Cardinals rushing attack, it makes things more difficult.
If the Cardinals can come out, run the ball and then use that action to get shot plays to their big play guys like Marvin Harrison Jr (dealing with a quad injury) and Trey McBride (unlikely to play as he is in the concussion protocol) then they can have some success.
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3) Now that Washington has Kliff Kingsbury as our offensive coordinator, can you tell us what you thought of him from his time in Arizona? What does he need to improve on to have more success as an OC here?
Everyone loved Kliff the person, he just didn’t seem to be the guy to run a team. So, I think he is in an optimum spot to come in and be an offensive coordinator who can scheme, work with young talent and worry about just the offense.
Now, the key to Kliff is going to be how he adapts through a season, something that he seemed to struggle with at Texas Tech, then in Arizona.
Once teams start forcing him to change what he wants to do, he has struggled, but that was as a HC. As an OC, I like his chances to be successful and ultimately give the Commanders a good chance to be successful with the young offensive core.
4) Who is one Cardinals player on offense and one player on defense that Washington fans probably don’t know much about, but should?
WR Greg Dortch, especially with the aforementioned injury issues to MHJ and McBride.
Dortch has been a security blanket at times, but the reality is he is a dynamic threat out of the slot when they want to go into 11 personnel, which they just have not done much outside of game one.
Defensively, LB Mack Wilson Sr. has been a revelation. He has been a physical force, he is endearing himself to the fans with his play and funny post game commentary on “X”. He was shown getting pancaked against the Lions, then he had a great quip back about him blowing up the massive Penei Sewell.
He also has played extremely well, which makes him a fan favorite very quickly.
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5) How should Washington go about gameplanning this matchup on both sides of the ball?
Oh man, I think this is going to be a barn burner (of course every time I predict that it ends up being a defensive battle).
Washington can and will be able to spread out and move the ball, meanwhile, do they have the dogs up front to deal with the Cardinals big lineup? If the Cardinals can effectively run 12/13 personnel, then most teams outside of the Lions don’t have the front seven to hold up against that. If the Commanders go big then they’ll be able to get the ball to their pass catchers, if they stay in a smaller lineup to stop the pass, then they’ll run the ball.
I think it should be a fun one, but like I said, I usually jinx those things.
Good luck and good health in this one.
Thanks again to Seth Cox for taking time out of his day to answer our questions about the Cardinals.