Are the Lions the juggernaut of the NFC?
It’s the Divisional round of the NFL playoffs and the No. 6 seed Washington Commanders will be facing a No. 1 seed Detroit Lions team on the road at Ford Field tonight. The Lions have had an amazing season, improving on a 12-5 season last year to finish with a 15-2 record this season. Even more impressive, they have done this despite being the NFL’s most injured team by several metrics, with almost all of the injuries coming on the defensive side of the ball (in contrast, the same article lists the Commanders as the 2nd or 3rd healthiest team in the NFL).
Adding to the challenge the Lions have faced this season, they play in the toughest division in football right now, the NFC North, and had to face the Vikings and Packers twice this season (both of which made the playoffs as wild cards) in addition to playing a first-place schedule due to winning the NFC North last season. Despite all of this, the Lions have only lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (week 2) and Buffalo Bills (week 15), each of those losses within a single score. Point differential is often considered a more predictive stat than win-loss record at determining the strength of a team. The Lions currently have the highest point differential in the NFL by a mile at +222, dwarfing even the 2nd place Philadelphia Eagles at +160.
On offense, the Lions are in their 3rd year under OC Ben Johnson, who was promoted in 2022 after former OC Anthony Lynn (currently run-game coordinator for the Commanders) was stripped of play-calling duties following an 0-8 start. Johnson’s background is primarily in the West Coast Offense, having worked under Adam Gase, Darrell Bevell, and Joe Philbin (a Mike McCarthy disciple), all of whom run variations of a West Coast Offense. At the same time, Johnson has added many of his own creative twists and seemingly borrowed a lot of the Shanahan outside-zone run concepts to develop a truly unique and multi-faceted offense that is difficult to predict.
In terms of personnel, the heart of the Lions offense is their talented offensive line, which features multiple Pro Bowlers and All-Pros over the last several years. The offense is built around a mix of power and zone run concepts, executed by the most talented thunder and lightning duo of RBs in the NFL in David Montgomery (returning from injury) and Jahmyr Gibbs. The primary threats in the passing game are WR Amon-Ra St Brown, WR Jameson Williams, and TE Sam LaPorta. St Brown is a power slot whose smarts and savvy route running get him open more often than not, but who is at least as important as a physical downfield blocker in the run game. Williams is a former 1st-round pick who has the speed to get behind a defense and make big plays. LaPorta is a smart, nuanced, and physical mid-field threat who (along with Gibbs) creates nightmare matchups for linebackers in the passing game.
All of this results in an offense that has the most points scored, the 2nd-most passing yards per attempt, and the 7th-most rushing yards per attempt in the NFL.
On defense, the Lions are in their 4th year under DC Aaron Glenn. Glenn runs a 4-3 base defense with the highest amount of man coverage in the league and primarily a single high safety. This high rate of man coverage allows the Lions to run the 2nd highest blitz rate in the league at 34.6%, so Commanders fans can expect a lot of aggression, but potential for exploitation in the middle of the field similar to what they faced against the Bucs. All of this results in a Lions defense that has allowed the 11th most passing yards per attempt and the 11th most rushing yards per attempt in the NFL, though as mentioned before, Glenn is doing this with deep injury replacements.
I asked Ryan Mathews of Pride of Detroit five questions to better understand the state of the Lions and what to look for in this game.
1) Tell us about Ben Johnson as an offensive coordinator, his strengths and weaknesses, and how do you think he’ll ultimately do as a head coach some day?
The obvious about Ben Johnson is well-documented at this point. He’s got tricks up his sleeves–plural–and he’s unafraid to pull those out at any time. Paired with an aggressive coach like Dan Campbell and you capture the attention–and win the hearts–of anyone who grew up playing Madden.
Part of the widespread acclaim for Johnson, the biggest feather in his cap so to speak, is “look what miracles he’s done with Jared Goff.” And there’s a lot of truth in that. Goff was widely viewed as the throw-in when he was sent along with the more highly touted first-round draft picks to Detroit. It was a clear downgrade to move from Matthew Stafford to the first castoff from McVay’s Island of Misfit Toys.
Johnson’s two biggest strengths come from his ability to identify and leverage a player’s strengths, and that’s founded on his biggest strength: to listen.
“I think how much input he allows me to have, and whether he takes it or he doesn’t, he allows me to say it and uses some of it,” Goff said after Johnson rebuffed head coaching opportunities to return as offensive coordinator.
“It’s fun for me, it really is. It allows me to really be a part of the plan in some ways. And he’s a great listener and listens to not only me, but all the players of what they want, what they see. And that’s not only through the week, but on game day the same way.”
As far as weaknesses, there’s times when he’s feeling himself a bit too much, but these are the most minor things: the quick-hitting WR screens to the boundary is a tough task for most quarterbacks against an NFL defense. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs ripping off explosive, bruising runs and Johnson isn’t shy about lining them up for another carry on the very next play. But it all feels in an effort to keep things balanced, yet uneven. Johnson is a master of running different plays out of the same looks. A streaking Jamo in motion across the line of scrimmage is the bait it’s meant to be until it’s not and he’s the one with the ball and a head of steam.
Johnson has a lot of the football sense down, and he’ll be a successful head coach so long as he models himself from one distinguishable trait of Dan Campbell’s–authenticity. If Johnson is himself, he can continue to be this mad scientist who embraces all the insane ideas of lab assistants.
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2) The other obvious question: how has Aaron Glenn managed to patch a defense together with duct tape and glue after losing so many defensive players to injury? How has he adapted?
Blitzing at a higher rate than nearly any other defense in the league. According to Next Gen Stats, since Aidan Hutchinson’s injury in Week 7, the Lions have blitzed on 42.5% of drop backs, the second-highest rate over that timespan. After losing five starters to season-ending injuries (Hutchinson, Marcus Davenport, Alim McNeil, Carlton Davis, Derrick Barnes), the defense was relying on players who had been in Detroit for less than a cup of coffee to play an upwards of 40 percent of snaps like Jonah Williams and Kwon Alexander.
In Week 18, with everything on the line for a team that was given the league’s earliest bye week (5), Glenn leaned more heavily into the blitz and man-coverage principles. Detroit played man coverage on 66.7% of drop backs, the second-highest clip among NFL teams this season. The Lions played two-and-a-half times more Cover-0 (25 snaps) over their final three games, than the next closest team–Miami Dolphins with 10–according to Next Gen Stats. He blitzed Sam Darnold on 53.3% of his drop backs, the highest rate he’d faced all season long.
Glenn is unafraid, and he’s made the most out of some ridiculously bad injury luck. He’s so ready to be a head coach with the way he carries himself and makes himself available to players who want to be coached. Between the two of these coordinators, we might start talking about Dan Campbell–a disciple of the Bill Parcells tree and the Sean Payton branch–being the foundation from which other coaches come from.
3) I think Lions fans are 1 to 2 years ahead of Commanders fans in terms of being a long-suffering fanbase whose team is finally turning things around and giving them not just hope, but pride and confidence. When did you as a fan start to feel differently about your team and realize “this time is different”?
In Dan Campbell’s second year as head coach, despite the Lions being 1-6 and some portions of the fanbase hitting the panic button, it didn’t feel like this was another retread of years’ past. The team wasn’t losing because of their coaching staff. There weren’t any coaching gaffes without culpability. The players didn’t look like they were just going through the motions because the coaching staff was constantly preaching a message of accountability and playing for the guy next to them. Detroit would go on to win eight of their remaining 10 games that season, and there were moments along the way that felt like there was serious momentum building, but the game that punctuated this era of Lions football being different was Week 18 of that 2022 season. The Lions were eliminated from postseason contention earlier that day, and even though the prevailing perception from those on the outside looking in was that Detroit had “nothing to play for” against the Green Bay Packers, Campbell made it very clear there was.
Detroit won that game, eliminated the Packers from playoff contention–ending Aaron Rodgers’ tenure in Green Bay in the process–and set the tone for what’s happened since.
4) Who is one Lions player on offense and one player on defense that Washington fans probably don’t know much about, but should?
On offense, it’s Kalif Raymond, the Lions punt returner and WR4. He’s a player who can get involved in a variety of ways, and he’s capable of generating big plays. He was Detroit’s defacto WR1 in 2021–the first year of Campbell’s tenure–and he proved he’s all grit and hustle, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t talented. Last year, Raymond created more separation than any other receiver in the NFL.
Lon Horwedel/Imagn Images
On the other side of the ball, that player is defensive lineman Levi Onwuzurike. He’s a former second-round pick whose football career was almost certainly on track to come to an unfortunate end due to back injuries and surgeries that limited him to just 528 snaps on defense over his first three seasons. This year, Onwuzurike has played 635 snaps, lining up anywhere from a 1 to a 7-technique out wide. He’s been one of the most consistent and effective defenders along Detroit’s defensive line, totaling 45 pressures (t-1st on the team) and 13 stops in run defense (third) in his first healthy season.
5) How should Washington go about game-planning this matchup on both sides of the ball?
Given that Aaron Glenn runs a lot of man defense, it would be wise for Washington to really take advantage of Jayden Daniels’ running ability. Sprinkle in some designed runs here and there to keep the defense’s eyes in the backfield. Getting him on the move and out of the pocket will give the Commanders a better chance at making some explosive plays happen. Detroit’s run defense has been a bit up and down since losing Alim McNeill a few weeks ago, but even if the traditional running game gets bogged down, it’s worth trying to get creative with other skill players to take the ball behind the line of scrimmage.
When trying to slow down Ben Johnson’s offense, you’re trying to overwhelm the middle of the field at all levels. At the line of scrimmage, do your best at trying to get pressure up the middle to make Jared Goff move off his spot. Simulate pressure with the linebackers, keep them active in coverage, and be more selective with blitzing. Goff has developed quite a bit since his days in Los Angeles, and he’s established himself as a great quarterback against the blitz.
A companion article to this with my answers to Ryan’s questions can be found here.
Thanks again to Ryan Mathews for taking time out of his day to answer our questions about the Lions.