Will Washington be able to re-take lead in the division from a surging Eagles team?
It’s week 11 of the NFL season and the 7-3 Washington Commanders will be facing a 7-2 Eagles team on the road at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA on Thursday (today) at 8:20 pm EST. The Eagles started the season a bit lackluster, going 2-2 to start the season, but have been on a heater since week 7, with blowout wins against the Giants, Bengals, and Cowboys (and a win against the Jaguars that would have been a blowout if they didn’t let the Jags back in the game late).
On offense, the Eagles are in their first year with Kellen Moore as OC and their fourth year of offensive-minded HC Nick Sirianni. Although Kellen Moore was supposedly given control over the offense after the offense regressed last year, many have criticized the offense for still looking more like a Sirianni offense than a Kellen Moore offense. In particular, the offense last year was criticized for lack of pre-snap motion and over-use of shotgun. Kellen Moore was expected to fix this, as he’s known for heavy use of pre-snap motion and putting the QB under center to run play action. This year, the Eagles still rank 19th in pre-snap motion and 20th in play-action rate.
However, the Eagles have an offense stacked with playmakers and in my opinion, primarily win because their players are better than those of their opponents. The Eagles have All Pros in WR AJ Brown, RT Lane Johnson, and QB Jalen Hurts, Pro Bowlers in RB Saquon Barkley and LG Landon Dickerson, and players who probably deserve those honors in LT Jordan Mailata and TE Dallas Goeddert.
The Eagles especially shine in their run game, with the 2nd most rushing yards per game in the NFL, behind only the Ravens. One interesting trend for this run game is the fact that they’re fourth in yards before contact per attempt but 24th in yards after contact per attempt; in other words, the offensive line is doing most of the work in creating those yards. QB Jalen Hurts also accounts for a significant amount of their rushing production, with the 3rd most QB rushing yards (behind Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels).
On defense, the Eagles are in their first year with Vic Fangio at DC. Fangio was actually hired as a consultant for Eagles DC Johnathan Gannon in 2022 and Gannon’s successor Sean Desai was a Fangio disciple, so Fangio’s fingerprints have been on this defense even before his arrival as DC. The biggest change has been a transition from the 4-3 front the Eagles have run over many years to a 3-4 front, though that transition really began last year when Matt Patricia was brought in to run the defense mid-season. Fangio typically uses 2 deep safeties to limit explosive plays, something that has been very popular around the NFL this year. He also typically runs a light box, relying on stout defensive lineman to stop the run while dropping most of his players back in coverage. The Eagles are also ranked 26th in the NFL in blitz rate, relying on DL winning their matchups and good coverage on the backend to get pressure.
All of this has resulted in a defense that has surrendered the 2nd fewest passing yards and 5th fewest rushing yards in the NFL so far this season. This performance has been enabled by the emergence of several new players, in particular rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell, slot CB Cooper DeJean, 2nd-year LB Nakobe Dean, and free agent LB Zack Baun. The improved LB play has been particularly important, as that position was an exploitable weakness of Eagles teams in years past.
That being said, the Eagles have played a lot of bad offenses since their week 5 bye (Browns with Deshaun Watson, Giants with Daniel Jones, Jaguars when Trevor Lawrence got injured in the 2nd quarter, Cowboys without Dak Prescott), so Washington may provide their toughest offensive matchup since their week 4 game against Tampa Bay.
I asked Brandon Lee Gowton of Bleeding Green Nation five questions to better understand the state of the Eagles and what to look for in this game.
1) The Eagles looked rough to start the season, with losses to the Falcons and Bucs and close games with the Saints and Browns. The Eagles have been playing like a different team since around Week 7 though, with mostly blowout wins since then. What was the problem and how did the Eagles turn things around?
The Eagles have really leaned into running the damn ball since their Week 5 bye; they lead the NFL in rushing play percentage at 55.01%. As it turns out, Saquon Barkley is a pretty great player who’s really hard to stop. Especially when he’s running behind one of the NFL’s better offensive lines.
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Running the ball more often has lessened the need for Jalen Hurts to carry the team with his arm. He’s been much more efficient as a lower volume passer. Averaging 33 pass attempts over his first four games, Hurts produced four passing touchdowns to four interceptions. Averaging 20.6 pass attempts per game over his last five games, Hurts produced eight passing touchdowns to one interception.
The Eagles’ defense has also majorly factored in to the team’s overall success. In their Week 4 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Birds allowed four touchdowns. In the five games since then, they’ve allowed four touchdowns combined. There was always thought that it might take some time for Vic Fangio’s defense to click and it seems like that’s exactly what happened. Of course, it’s helped that the Eagles have also faced lesser quarterbacks/offenses. But they did shut down Joe Burrow, who’s pretty good, during that stretch.
It’ll be very interesting to see how Fangio’s defense fares against the best quarterback the Eagles have faced this season in Jayden Daniels.
2) What do you think of the job done by Nick Sirianni? What would it take for him to get fired? What would it take for fans to accept him?
On one hand, Nick Sirianni has done a whole lot of winning. With this year’s 7-2 start, he’s up to 41-19 in 60 games as the Eagles’ head coach. Only eight coaches have a better all-time winning percentage: Guy Chamberlain, John Madden, Vince Lombardi, George Allen, Tommy Hughitt, Jim Harbaugh, Blanton Collier, and Ray Flaherty. The Eagles have made the playoffs — and one Super Bowl — in three out of three seasons since he was hired. And there’s obviously a decent chance it’ll be four out of four.
On the other hand, it’s hard to know exactly how much credit Sirianni deserves for the Eagles’ success. He was stripped of some of his power following the team’s unprecedented collapse late last season. One of the things we do know he directly handles is game management … and he’s hardly aced that category this season. At his best, he’s stayed out of the way and managed not to be a liability. At his worst, the Eagles have had to win in spite of their head coach.
Entering this season, I felt good about the Eagles’ outlook. I had them going 13-4. My confidence was rooted in their talent, though. I think that’s really the big driver of their success. I don’t feel confident in Sirianni giving them an edge when the margin for error shrinks in the playoffs.
On that note, if the Eagles aren’t able to win a playoff game … that’ll be concerning. The circumstances of such a loss would obviously be relevant to whether he retains his job or not. He’d probably be safe with a close loss but it can’t be another blowout defeat like it’s been in two out of his three seasons.
As for what it’d take for fans to accept him? More winning. Fewer game management mistakes.
3) The Commanders hired Brian Johnson (formerly of the Eagles) as a passing game coordinator this past offseason. What did you think of Brian Johnson as a QB coach and Offensive Coordinator for the Eagles and what do you think he’s able to add to Washington in terms of offense or player development?
Hurts obviously had his best season with Johnson as his quarterbacks coach in 2022, so, hard to argue with the results there.
Johnson was much less popular as the team’s offensive coordinator in 2023. As a member of Brian Johnson Island, I was one of his rare defenders. The belief here was that Johnson was calling plays from a Sirianni-devised menu that wasn’t very good. That sentiment was later backed up by reporting from ESPN:
A source described Johnson as having to fit his own philosophy within an offensive structure belonging to Sirianni. And just how much autonomy Johnson has as a playcaller is unclear. Sirianni has acknowledged that he’ll step in to overrule a call on occasion, as he did on a critical third-and-long play against the Washington Commanders in Week 4, when Johnson wanted to pass and Sirianni dialed up a run, which didn’t pan out. The line is blurred enough that some offensive players don’t know for sure who is calling the plays and when, a team source said.
The Eagles’ actions also confirmed as much. Sirianni’s role has seemingly shrunk with Kellen Moore hired to put his stamp on the offense.
Getting back to Brian Johnson, I always came away impressed whenever he spoke to reporters. He seems like a pretty sharp guy. And he clearly has a track record to point to given his work with Dak Prescott, Kyle Trask, Hurts, and now Daniels. I’m not surprised he’s been able to help Washington.
4) Who is one Eagles player on offense and one player on defense that Washington fans probably don’t know much about, but should?
Offense: Johnny Wilson. The rookie wide receiver logged his first touchdown catch last week. He also had another in Week 9 that was called back due to a questionable offensive pass interference penalty. Standing at 6’ 6⅜”, 231 pounds with 35⅜” arms (99th percentile), he has the potential to be a red zone weapon for the Eagles. Less of a concern for the Commanders if Wilson gets matched up on the 6’3” Benjamin St-Juste but it could be an issue if mighty but small 5’10” Mike Sainristil finds himself going up against his fellow rookie.
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Defense: Does Zack Baun count as unknown? Formerly a role player on the New Orleans Saints, Baun has elevated to stardom as an inside linebacker in Philadelphia. The reigning NFC Defensive Player of the Week has been such a beast for the Eagles this season. He leads all linebackers in “stops” – tackles that constitute a failure for the offense. He ranks tied for second among all linebackers in forced fumbles with three, only behind Fred Warner’s four. He ranks second among all linebackers in Pro Football Focus’s coverage grading, only slightly behind Fred Warner in the top spot. At his current pace, Baun deserves to make the All-Pro team this season. If the Eagles are able to slow down the Commanders’ top-notch offense, I suspect do-it-all Baun will have played a major role. I’m wondering if the Eagles might use him as a spy to account for Jayden Daniels’ mobility.
5) How should Washington go about gameplanning this matchup on both sides of the ball?
Defending the Eagles’ offense: The Commanders must sell out to stop the run. That’s probably easier said than done. And it’s not like you should be thrilled about funneling more targets to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. But, as previously mentioned earlier, Hurts has been at his best when he hasn’t had to be a volume passer. The Commanders should really try to make Hurts beat them with his arm. I imagine Dan Quinn’s familiarity with defending Hurts from his time with the Dallas Cowboys could come in handy. Not to mention the knowledge that Brian Johnson and Zach Ertz bring when it comes to knowing Hurts’ preferences.
Attacking the Eagles’ defense: Vic Fangio’s unit had their worst game in Week 4 when Baker Mayfield was getting the ball out lightning fast. The Commanders could look to emphasize their quick game against this defense. I’d also say throwing the ball to Terry McLaurin is a pretty good idea considering how the Eagles have struggled to cover him in the past. While the Eagles are more equipped to cover him than they’ve previously been, the Commanders have the best quarterback they’ve ever had throwing to McLaurin.
A companion article to this with my answers to Brandon’s questions can be found here.
Thanks again to Brandon Lee Gowton for taking time out of his day to answer our questions about the Eagles. Thanks in particular for turning around questions and answers quickly to allow for this Q&A before Thursday night.