Prior to the 2024 season, Next Gen Stats and Amazon Web Services collaborated to create Tackle Probability. This is a new artificial intelligence model to estimate all 11 defenders’ chances of making a tackle every tenth of a second of every play from scrimmage. At the end of the season, the NFL used this model to grade each team’s defensive tackling ability. They looked at metrics like tackle efficiency and missed tackle yards lost and graded each team’s success.
The Washington Commanders landed in the top 10 in this category, ranking 8th overall with an 86.8% (B+).
Dan Quinn led the league’s greatest turnaround in Washington this season, and one factor was his development of a disciplined tackling unit that improved from 22nd in the NFL in efficiency in 2023 to fifth this year. The Commanders’ playoff campaign was keyed by a raft of veteran acquisitions, including Bobby Wagner and Jeremy Chinn, who were as impressive as anyone; they were two of four players in the league to convert over 100 tackles on an efficiency rate of 93% or better. Both cornerstones were on one-year deals, and Washington might need to pay up to retain them.
Washington definitely needs to find a way to retain both Wagner and Chinn. They were instrumental in the Commanders’ success on defense this year. While the run defense still needs some love, these two leaving for another team is not ideal for the Commanders.
It is interesting, though, that the Commanders rank 8th in this category, considering how poor their run defense was in 2024, although they did have one of the top-ranked passing defenses. Still, they must find a way to get a solid edge rusher on their line while ensuring Bobby Wagner and Jeremy Chinn don’t go anywhere else.