And how might that change in 2025?
For five of the six past offseasons, I’ve done analyses looking at the Washington players who provided the best value in the prior seasons. I was so deflated after last year, I needed a breather. Reinvigorated now, I’ve decided to dust off the exercise again.
This is a re-run of those prior exercises with the same rules of the road. Despite its shortcomings, “performance” will be based on Pro Football Reference’s “approximate value (AV),” which is one of the few broadly available tools to try to quantify player performance from year to year.
A description from the PFR site is below:
“Essentially, AV is a substitute for — and a significant improvement upon, in my opinion — metrics like ‘number of seasons as a starter’ or ‘number of times making the Pro Bowl’ or the like. You should think of it as being essentially like those two metrics, but with interpolation in between. That is, ‘number of seasons as a starter’ is a reasonable starting point if you’re trying to measure, say, how good a particular draft class is, or what kind of player you can expect to get with the #13 pick in the draft. But obviously some starters are better than others. Starters on good teams are, as a group, better than starters on bad teams. Starting WRs who had lots of receiving yards are, as a group, better than starting WRs who did not have many receiving yards. Starters who made the pro bowl are, as a group, better than starters who didn’t, and so on. And non-starters aren’t worthless, so they get some points too.”
For 2024 salaries, I am using information from Over the Cap. For the purposes of this article, I am using “cap hit” interchangeably with “salary.” Throughout the rest of this article, “value” will be calculated as “cap hit($)/AV.” Players with an AV below 4 were generally eliminated from this exercise unless there was some specific reason to include them.
High Production, Low Costs, Great Value
David Reginek-Imagn Images
Washington’s 2024 roster was an interesting one, with lots of young players and significant number of older, seasoned vets on short contracts. This category – comprised of individuals with an AV above 4 and a value below $400,000 – was densely populated as a result.
Ten players fell into this category, with six on their rookie deals and four on very reasonably priced vet contracts. The top player on the list was – by a wide margin – rookie Brandon Coleman, who posted an AV of 8 and a value of around $137,000/AV. Vet wide receiver Olamide Zaccheaus had a sneaky good season as well (AV 6), posting the second-best value on the team at $192,000/AV.
Other vets in this category included WR Noah Brown ($242,000/AV), LB Frankie Luvu ($297,000/AV), and LG Nick Allegretti ($330,000/AV). Luvu’s salary jumps significantly in 2025, with Allegretti’s increasing substantially in 2026.
In addition to Coleman, three more rookies from this year’s class qualified for this category: CB Mikey Sainristil ($280,000/AV), QB Jayden Daniels ($343,000/AV) (and who put up an unreal 20 AV), and DT Johnny Newton ($354,000/AV).
Rounding out this list were the only two Rivera-era draft picks to achieve mention in this piece, both still on rookie contracts: RB Brian Robinson ($196,000/AV) and S Quan Martin ($347,000/AV).
Cheap Vets and Good Production
Peter Casey-Imagn Images
This group is, essentially, entirely a testament to the strong work of Adam Peters and the front office during the last offseason.
All eight of the players in this category were either free agents brought in by Peters and company or veterans extended by the front office. Zach Ertz ($428,000/AV), Austin Ekeler ($479,000/AV), Bobby Wagner ($500,000/AV), and Tyler Biadasz ($548,000/AV) headline the group, with Wagner leading all players in this group with an AV of 13.
Two players extended by the front office, Cornelius Lucas ($560,000/AV) and Sam Cosmi ($628,000/AV) were both very reasonably priced this year. Cosmi’s cap hit just about doubles in 2025, and quadruples in 2026. At that point, he’s going to need to be playing at near Pro Bowl level to remain a good value. Lucas is a free agent, and would be great to sign as a swing tackle for the next year or two at a modest salary.
Two more free agent signings round out this group: Dante Fowler ($650,000/AV) and Jeremy Chinn ($684,000/AV). Both players are free agents this year and likely played themselves into much bigger contracts in 2025.
A High-Priced, High-Performer
Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
Only one player fell into this category this year. With the 4th highest AV on the team (12), and a great season under his belt, Terry McLaurin was well-compensated, but he earned his salary. Even at a value of just over $2M/AV, McLaurin was worth it, in terms of his value to the team and, in particular, Jayden Daniels.
Mid-Range Vets
Peter Casey-Imagn Images
All three players in this grouping are former free agents, signed over the past several years. And all represented respectable value for the services rendered. Andrew Wylie (AV 7) continues to chug along, not quite as reviled by the fanbase as he was in 2023, but a constant reminder that the team can get better at tackle ($1,345,000/AV). The team could save some money by cutting him this offseason, but the question becomes: Can they do better for less?
Dorance Armstrong ($855,000/AV) and Clelin Ferrell ($750,000/AV) were both role players in Washington’s defense this year, and Armstrong is signed for two more seasons. I expect the team to let Ferrell walk in free agency.
Poor Value & the Walking Wounded
Photo by John McDonnell/The Washington Post via Getty Images
After having landed massive contracts over the past few years, the expectations for Washington’s top two defensive tackles were stratospheric. I think it’s safe to say, in 2024, those expectations came crashing back down to earth.
Daron Payne achieved a very mediocre AV of 7, posting a value of around $3M/AV, and the injured Jon Allen, whose AV was only 3, posted a value of about $7M/AV, which was reminiscent of Carson Wentz’s value in 2022.
Allen could be cut for substantial cap savings (about $16M) this offseason. I suspect there will be significant pressure from the front office to restructure his deal as he enters the downside of his career.
Conclusions
- The most notable element of this exercise, comparing the 2024 roster to the 2023 roster, is simply the massive improvement in talent. In 2023, the top AV-getters were Sam Howell (11), Sam Cosmi (8), and Terry McLaurin (8). This season, Daniels (20), Frankie Luvu (13), Bobby Wagner (13), and McLaurin (12) all exceeded Howell’s AV. Nick Allegretti (9), Cosmi (9), Tyler Biadasz (8), and Brandon Coleman (8), all exceeded or matched Cosmi and McLaurin’s 2023 mark.
- With six players on rookie deals falling into the “high production, low costs, great value” category, Washington is in good shape for the next few years, with a productive, low-cost, core. I expect this group will grow by 4 or 5 more players next year, as the 2025 draft class is added, and later round picks from 2024 get an expanded role. If the “rookie deal” fraction of this group is 10 or 11 players (about 20% of the roster) next year, Washington will have hit the jackpot.
- The 2024 free agent class was excellent. I think it probably exceeded even the 2020 free agent class, which was Washington’s best in recent memory. Zaccheaus & Brown, Luvu, Allegretti, Ertz, Ekeler, Wagner, and Biadasz were all key components this season. Some will be back in 2025, others may not be. If the front office can keep hitting at this pace, however, the team will be in great shape. I expect that at least a few of these slots will be occupied by younger, cheaper players moving forward.
- The franchise has some real decisions to make this offseason regarding its defensive line. I don’t think there’s any way to deny the reality that it’s not getting what it’s paid for from that unit. Whether that involves contract restructuring, cutting players, or looking for trade options, I expect changes to be made.
- Finally, with around $90M in cap space this offseason, I expect – at least – one or two free agents to be jammed into the “high-priced, high-performer” category this offseason. I would be completely unsurprised – in fact, I expect it – to see a fairly expensive wide receiver and/or secondary piece added to the roster early in free agency.
Addendum:
The full value table for the team is included below: